Cincinnati Financial Stock Price Prediction
| CINF Stock | USD 117.52 2.22 1.93% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Cincinnati Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cincinnati Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cincinnati Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cincinnati Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cincinnati Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cincinnati Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Cincinnati Financial's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.37 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.03 | Wall Street Target Price 130.57 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cincinnati Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Cincinnati stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Cincinnati Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using Cincinnati Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cincinnati Financial from the perspective of Cincinnati Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cincinnati Financial using Cincinnati Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cincinnati using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cincinnati Financial's stock price.
Cincinnati Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Cincinnati Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cincinnati. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cincinnati Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Cincinnati Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cincinnati Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cincinnati Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 107.0122 | Short Percent 0.0156 | Short Ratio 1.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 116.1666 |
Cincinnati Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cincinnati Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cincinnati. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cincinnati can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cincinnati Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cincinnati Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cincinnati Financial.
Cincinnati Financial Implied Volatility | 88.54 |
Cincinnati Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cincinnati Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cincinnati Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cincinnati Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cincinnati Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Cincinnati Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cincinnati Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cincinnati because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cincinnati Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 117.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cincinnati contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cincinnati Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.53% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Cincinnati Financial trading at USD 117.52, that is roughly USD 6.5 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cincinnati Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cincinnati Financial options at the current volatility level of 88.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cincinnati |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cincinnati Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cincinnati Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cincinnati Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cincinnati Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cincinnati Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cincinnati Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cincinnati Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cincinnati Financial's historical news coverage. Cincinnati Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 116.29 and 118.83, respectively. We have considered Cincinnati Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cincinnati Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cincinnati Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cincinnati Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cincinnati Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cincinnati Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cincinnati Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.29 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
117.52 | 117.56 | 0.00 |
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Cincinnati Financial Hype Timeline
Cincinnati Financial is currently traded for 117.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Cincinnati is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cincinnati Financial is about 133.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.42. About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.54. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cincinnati Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.66. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of March 2024. The firm had 105:100 split on the 4th of April 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Cincinnati Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cincinnati Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cincinnati Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cincinnati Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Cincinnati Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cincinnati Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.24 | 1.51 | (1.05) | 7.37 | |
| CB | Chubb | (5.29) | 9 per month | 0.57 | 0.06 | 1.18 | (1.00) | 5.20 | |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.07 | 2.50 | (1.53) | 7.31 | |
| WRB | W R Berkley | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.02 | 1.83 | (1.96) | 10.75 | |
| ALL | The Allstate | (4.11) | 10 per month | 0.85 | 0.10 | 1.98 | (1.46) | 4.69 | |
| MKL | Markel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.94 | (1.93) | 7.98 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.47 | (1.57) | 5.06 | |
| CNA | CNA Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.27 | (1.97) | 12.05 | |
| WTM | White Mountains Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.02 | 2.24 | (2.07) | 5.64 | |
| WRB-PE | W R Berkley | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.81 | (1.60) | 3.72 |
Cincinnati Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cincinnati price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cincinnati using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cincinnati charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Cincinnati Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cincinnati Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cincinnati Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cincinnati Financial based on analysis of Cincinnati Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cincinnati Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cincinnati Financial's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0215 | 0.026 | 0.028 | 0.0226 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.9 | 2.48 | 1.62 | 1.51 |
Story Coverage note for Cincinnati Financial
The number of cover stories for Cincinnati Financial depends on current market conditions and Cincinnati Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cincinnati Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cincinnati Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cincinnati Financial Short Properties
Cincinnati Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cincinnati Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cincinnati Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cincinnati Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cincinnati Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 158.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.7 B |
Check out Cincinnati Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Cincinnati Stock please use our How to Invest in Cincinnati Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Cincinnati Stock analysis
When running Cincinnati Financial's price analysis, check to measure Cincinnati Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cincinnati Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Cincinnati Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cincinnati Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cincinnati Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cincinnati Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cincinnati Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cincinnati Financial. If investors know Cincinnati will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cincinnati Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | Dividend Share 3 | Earnings Share 11.66 | Revenue Per Share 63.777 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.077 |
The market value of Cincinnati Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cincinnati that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cincinnati Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cincinnati Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cincinnati Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cincinnati Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cincinnati Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cincinnati Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cincinnati Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.