Ciena Corp Stock Price Prediction
| CIEN Stock | USD 43.77 1.03 2.30% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Ciena Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ciena Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ciena Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ciena Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ciena Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ciena Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ciena Corp's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.15 | Wall Street Target Price 58 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.48 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ciena Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ciena stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ciena Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Ciena Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ciena Corp from the perspective of Ciena Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ciena Corp using Ciena Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ciena using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ciena Corp's stock price.
Ciena Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ciena Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ciena. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ciena Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ciena Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ciena Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ciena Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 46.9027 | Short Percent 0.0474 | Short Ratio 1.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 52.6072 |
Ciena Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ciena Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ciena. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ciena can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ciena Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ciena Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ciena Corp.
Ciena Corp Implied Volatility | 80.64 |
Ciena Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ciena Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ciena Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ciena Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ciena Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ciena Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ciena Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ciena because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ciena Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 43.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ciena contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ciena Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.04% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Ciena Corp trading at USD 43.77, that is roughly USD 2.21 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ciena Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ciena Corp options at the current volatility level of 80.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ciena |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ciena Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ciena Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ciena Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ciena Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ciena Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ciena Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ciena Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ciena Corp's historical news coverage. Ciena Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.03 and 46.51, respectively. We have considered Ciena Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ciena Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ciena Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ciena Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ciena Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ciena Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ciena Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 11 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
43.77 | 43.77 | 0.00 |
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Ciena Corp Hype Timeline
Ciena Corp is currently traded for 43.77. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.09. Ciena is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ciena Corp is about 732.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.68. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Ciena Corp was currently reported as 20.17. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.77. Ciena Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:7 split on the 25th of September 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ciena Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ciena Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ciena Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Ciena Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ciena Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Ciena Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ciena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ciena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ciena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ciena Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ciena Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ciena Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ciena Corp based on analysis of Ciena Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ciena Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ciena Corp's related companies. | 2010 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0815 | 0.0704 | 0.0407 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.77 | 1.72 | 1.63 |
Story Coverage note for Ciena Corp
The number of cover stories for Ciena Corp depends on current market conditions and Ciena Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ciena Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ciena Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ciena Corp Short Properties
Ciena Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ciena Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ciena Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ciena Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ciena Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 149.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Ciena Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ciena Corp guide.Note that the Ciena Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ciena Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for Ciena Stock analysis
When running Ciena Corp's price analysis, check to measure Ciena Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ciena Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Ciena Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ciena Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ciena Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ciena Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years |
Is Ciena Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ciena Corp. If investors know Ciena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ciena Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share 1.54 | Revenue Per Share 29.507 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0424 |
The market value of Ciena Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ciena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ciena Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ciena Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ciena Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ciena Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ciena Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ciena Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ciena Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.