Caci International Stock Price Prediction
| CACI Stock | USD 414.95 3.99 0.97% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
CACI International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of CACI International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of CACI International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of CACI International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from CACI International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CACI International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting CACI International's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6 | EPS Estimate Current Year 20.39 | EPS Estimate Next Year 23.2 | Wall Street Target Price 441.4 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of CACI International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The CACI stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on CACI International over a specific investment horizon. Using CACI International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CACI International from the perspective of CACI International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CACI International using CACI International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CACI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CACI International's stock price.
CACI International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in CACI International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards CACI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of CACI International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long CACI International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CACI International and may potentially protect profits, hedge CACI International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 342.519 | Short Percent 0.013 | Short Ratio 2.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 241.6 K | 50 Day MA 376.1872 |
CACI International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CACI International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CACI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CACI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CACI International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CACI International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CACI International.
CACI International Implied Volatility | 23.49 |
CACI International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CACI International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CACI International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CACI International stock will not fluctuate a lot when CACI International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in CACI International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CACI International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CACI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CACI International after-hype prediction price | USD 414.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CACI contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CACI International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.47% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With CACI International trading at USD 414.95, that is roughly USD 6.09 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CACI International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CACI International options at the current volatility level of 23.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
CACI |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CACI International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CACI International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CACI International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CACI International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CACI International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CACI International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CACI International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CACI International's historical news coverage. CACI International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 412.94 and 415.26, respectively. We have considered CACI International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CACI International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CACI International is based on 3 months time horizon.
CACI International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CACI International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CACI International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CACI International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.16 | 0.85 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
414.95 | 414.10 | 0.20 |
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CACI International Hype Timeline
CACI International is currently traded for 414.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.85, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. CACI is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 414.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 38.03%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on CACI International is about 870.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 414.91. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of CACI International was currently reported as 150.93. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 17.3. CACI International had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 7th of December 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out CACI International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CACI International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CACI International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CACI International's future price movements. Getting to know how CACI International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CACI International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INFY | Infosys Ltd ADR | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.82 | (2.58) | 6.48 | |
| NOTE | FiscalNote Holdings | (0.07) | 12 per month | 6.54 | 0.05 | 8.47 | (9.09) | 35.66 | |
| INOD | Innodata | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.83 | (10.11) | 43.19 | |
| AUR | Aurora Innovation | 0.01 | 10 per month | 4.15 | 0.04 | 7.09 | (7.57) | 17.78 | |
| CNDT | Conduent | (0.02) | 9 per month | 2.34 | 0.02 | 5.44 | (3.83) | 12.53 | |
| FIS | Fidelity National Information | (0.54) | 9 per month | 0.95 | 0.1 | 2.30 | (1.74) | 7.15 |
CACI International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CACI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CACI using various technical indicators. When you analyze CACI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CACI International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CACI International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CACI International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CACI International based on analysis of CACI International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CACI International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CACI International's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 54.5 | 48.74 | 56.05 | 90.61 | PTB Ratio | 2.16 | 2.45 | 2.82 | 2.28 |
Story Coverage note for CACI International
The number of cover stories for CACI International depends on current market conditions and CACI International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CACI International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CACI International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CACI International Short Properties
CACI International's future price predictability will typically decrease when CACI International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CACI International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CACI International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CACI International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115.8 M |
Check out CACI International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in CACI Stock please use our How to Invest in CACI International guide.Note that the CACI International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CACI International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for CACI Stock analysis
When running CACI International's price analysis, check to measure CACI International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CACI International is operating at the current time. Most of CACI International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CACI International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CACI International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CACI International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CACI International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CACI International. If investors know CACI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CACI International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.185 | Earnings Share 17.3 | Revenue Per Share 325.474 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.111 | Return On Assets 0.0558 |
The market value of CACI International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CACI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CACI International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CACI International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CACI International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CACI International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CACI International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CACI International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CACI International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.