Bancfirst Stock Price Prediction

BANF Stock  USD 88.03  0.43  0.49%   
As of 29th of March 2024, the relative strength index (RSI) of BancFirst's share price is approaching 38 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling BancFirst, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

38

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
BancFirst stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of BancFirst shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of BancFirst's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of BancFirst and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from BancFirst's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with BancFirst, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting BancFirst's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.14)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.37
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.46
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.26
Wall Street Target Price
91
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of BancFirst based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The BancFirst stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on BancFirst over a specific investment horizon. Using BancFirst hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BancFirst from the perspective of BancFirst response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BancFirst using BancFirst's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BancFirst using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BancFirst's stock price.

BancFirst Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in BancFirst's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards BancFirst. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of BancFirst stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long BancFirst may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about BancFirst and may potentially protect profits, hedge BancFirst with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
90.513
Short Percent
0.0345
Short Ratio
9.49
Shares Short Prior Month
561 K
50 Day MA
88.3372

BancFirst Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to BancFirst's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BancFirst. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BancFirst can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BancFirst. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BancFirst's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BancFirst.

BancFirst Implied Volatility

    
  21.54  
BancFirst's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BancFirst stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BancFirst's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BancFirst stock will not fluctuate a lot when BancFirst's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in BancFirst. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BancFirst to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BancFirst because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

BancFirst after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 88.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BancFirst contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BancFirst will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With BancFirst trading at USD 88.03, that is roughly USD 1.18 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BancFirst's daily price movement you should consider acquiring BancFirst options at the current volatility level of 21.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out BancFirst Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in BancFirst Stock please use our How to Invest in BancFirst guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BancFirst's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
87.1589.0190.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
84.7386.5988.44
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
80.9989.0098.79
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.371.391.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BancFirst. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BancFirst's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BancFirst's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BancFirst.

BancFirst After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of BancFirst at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BancFirst or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BancFirst, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

BancFirst Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting BancFirst's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BancFirst's historical news coverage. BancFirst's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.17 and 89.89, respectively. We have considered BancFirst's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
88.03
88.03
After-hype Price
89.89
Upside
BancFirst is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BancFirst is based on 3 months time horizon.

BancFirst Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BancFirst is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BancFirst backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BancFirst, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
1.87
  0.10 
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
88.03
88.03
0.00 
236.71  
Notes

BancFirst Hype Timeline

BancFirst is currently traded for 88.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. BancFirst is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on BancFirst is about 149600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 88.03. About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of BancFirst was currently reported as 43.54. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.08. BancFirst recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.34. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of August 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out BancFirst Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in BancFirst Stock please use our How to Invest in BancFirst guide.

BancFirst Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to BancFirst's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BancFirst's future price movements. Getting to know how BancFirst rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BancFirst may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FUNCedar Fair LP(0.47)12 per month 1.44  0.02  2.32 (2.06) 7.77 
JOBYJoby Aviation(0.01)12 per month 0.00 (0.14) 4.60 (5.23) 18.93 
PAVSParanovus Entertainment Technology 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.18) 5.53 (9.05) 15.97 
HSEEFHill Street Beverage 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.01) 7.32 (6.82) 35.32 
CAAPCorporacion America Airports(0.05)10 per month 1.97 (0.05) 3.74 (2.91) 13.64 
DINOHF Sinclair Corp(0.14)11 per month 1.69 (0.01) 2.90 (2.48) 9.96 
ALAir Lease 0.37 12 per month 1.49  0.11  2.61 (2.79) 7.87 
TBBBBBB Foods 0.30 5 per month 1.63  0.28  5.37 (3.58) 12.94 

BancFirst Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine BancFirst price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BancFirst using various technical indicators. When you analyze BancFirst charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About BancFirst Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of BancFirst stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BancFirst, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BancFirst based on analysis of BancFirst hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BancFirst's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BancFirst's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio13.7714.9715.0811.23
Short Term Coverage Ratios135.08112.2442.3832.5

Story Coverage note for BancFirst

The number of cover stories for BancFirst depends on current market conditions and BancFirst's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BancFirst is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BancFirst's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

BancFirst Short Properties

BancFirst's future price predictability will typically decrease when BancFirst's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BancFirst often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BancFirst's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BancFirst's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.8 B
When determining whether BancFirst is a strong investment it is important to analyze BancFirst's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact BancFirst's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding BancFirst Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out BancFirst Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in BancFirst Stock please use our How to Invest in BancFirst guide.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

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When running BancFirst's price analysis, check to measure BancFirst's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BancFirst is operating at the current time. Most of BancFirst's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BancFirst's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BancFirst's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BancFirst to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is BancFirst's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BancFirst. If investors know BancFirst will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BancFirst listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.14)
Dividend Share
1.66
Earnings Share
6.34
Revenue Per Share
18.299
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of BancFirst is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BancFirst that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BancFirst's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BancFirst's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BancFirst's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BancFirst's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BancFirst's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BancFirst is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BancFirst's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.