Axis Capital Holdings Stock Price Prediction

AXS Stock  USD 65.02  0.03  0.05%   
The relative strength indicator of AXIS Capital's the stock price is slightly above 69. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling AXIS, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

69

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
AXIS Capital Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AXIS Capital shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AXIS Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AXIS Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AXIS Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AXIS Capital Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting AXIS Capital's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.226
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.6
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.06
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.56
Wall Street Target Price
71.5
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AXIS Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AXIS stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AXIS Capital over a specific investment horizon. Using AXIS Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AXIS Capital Holdings from the perspective of AXIS Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AXIS Capital using AXIS Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AXIS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AXIS Capital's stock price.

AXIS Capital Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in AXIS Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AXIS. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AXIS Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long AXIS Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AXIS Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge AXIS Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
56.5549
Short Percent
0.0152
Short Ratio
1.41
Shares Short Prior Month
1.2 M
50 Day MA
60.3958

AXIS Capital Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to AXIS Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AXIS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AXIS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AXIS Capital Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AXIS Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AXIS Capital.

AXIS Capital Implied Volatility

    
  45.71  
AXIS Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AXIS Capital Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AXIS Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AXIS Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when AXIS Capital's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AXIS Capital. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AXIS Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AXIS because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AXIS Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 65.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AXIS contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AXIS Capital Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.86% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With AXIS Capital trading at USD 65.02, that is roughly USD 1.86 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AXIS Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AXIS Capital Holdings options at the current volatility level of 45.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out AXIS Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AXIS Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.5069.1570.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
64.1765.5366.89
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
59.0264.8671.99
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.252.612.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AXIS Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AXIS Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AXIS Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AXIS Capital Holdings.

AXIS Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AXIS Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AXIS Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AXIS Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AXIS Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AXIS Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AXIS Capital's historical news coverage. AXIS Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.67 and 66.39, respectively. We have considered AXIS Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
65.02
65.03
After-hype Price
66.39
Upside
AXIS Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AXIS Capital Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

AXIS Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AXIS Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AXIS Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AXIS Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.28 
1.35
  0.03 
  0.16 
7 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
65.02
65.03
0.05 
1,350  
Notes

AXIS Capital Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March AXIS Capital Holdings is traded for 65.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. AXIS is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 65.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on AXIS Capital is about 232.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.18. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.62 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 376.29 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 871.01 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out AXIS Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AXIS Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AXIS Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AXIS Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how AXIS Capital rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AXIS Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

AXIS Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AXIS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AXIS using various technical indicators. When you analyze AXIS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AXIS Capital Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AXIS Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AXIS Capital Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AXIS Capital based on analysis of AXIS Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AXIS Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AXIS Capital's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03810.03910.0390.0265
Price To Sales Ratio0.870.90.841.64

Story Coverage note for AXIS Capital

The number of cover stories for AXIS Capital depends on current market conditions and AXIS Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AXIS Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AXIS Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AXIS Capital Short Properties

AXIS Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when AXIS Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AXIS Capital Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AXIS Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AXIS Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding86 M
Cash And Short Term Investments5.3 B
When determining whether AXIS Capital Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze AXIS Capital's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AXIS Capital's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AXIS Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out AXIS Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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When running AXIS Capital's price analysis, check to measure AXIS Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AXIS Capital is operating at the current time. Most of AXIS Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AXIS Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AXIS Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AXIS Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AXIS Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AXIS Capital. If investors know AXIS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AXIS Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.226
Dividend Share
1.76
Earnings Share
4.02
Revenue Per Share
66.282
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.023
The market value of AXIS Capital Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AXIS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AXIS Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AXIS Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AXIS Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AXIS Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AXIS Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AXIS Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AXIS Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.