American Axle Manufacturing Stock Price Prediction

AXL Stock  USD 7.36  0.02  0.27%   
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of American Axle's share price is approaching 31. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Axle, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

31

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
American Axle Manufa stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Axle shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Axle's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Axle and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Axle's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Axle Manufacturing, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Axle's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.65)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.04
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.3
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.51
Wall Street Target Price
7.63
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Axle based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Axle over a specific investment horizon. Using American Axle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Axle Manufacturing from the perspective of American Axle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Axle using American Axle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Axle's stock price.

American Axle Implied Volatility

    
  50.42  
American Axle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Axle Manufacturing stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Axle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Axle stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Axle's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Axle. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Axle to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Axle after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.36  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Axle Manufacturing will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.15% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With American Axle trading at USD 7.36, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Axle's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Axle Manufacturing options at the current volatility level of 50.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out American Axle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Axle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.417.209.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.867.6510.45
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.848.619.56
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.11-0.010.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Axle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Axle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Axle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Axle Manufa.

American Axle After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Axle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Axle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Axle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Axle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Axle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Axle's historical news coverage. American Axle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.57 and 10.15, respectively. We have considered American Axle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
7.36
7.36
After-hype Price
10.15
Upside
American Axle is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Axle Manufa is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Axle Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Axle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Axle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Axle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
2.82
  0.03 
  0.02 
10 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.36
7.36
0.00 
2,350  
Notes

American Axle Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March American Axle Manufa is traded for 7.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Axle is about 4153.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.34. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.43. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Axle Manufa recorded a loss per share of 0.29. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2008. The firm had 117:1000 split on the 5th of October 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out American Axle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Axle Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Axle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Axle's future price movements. Getting to know how American Axle rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Axle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

American Axle Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Axle Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Axle stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Axle Manufacturing, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Axle based on analysis of American Axle hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Axle's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Axle's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Operating Cycle82.7254.42
Dividend Yield1.821.91

Story Coverage note for American Axle

The number of cover stories for American Axle depends on current market conditions and American Axle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Axle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Axle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Axle Short Properties

American Axle's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Axle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Axle Manufacturing often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Axle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Axle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding116.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments519.9 M
When determining whether American Axle Manufa is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Axle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Axle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Axle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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When running American Axle's price analysis, check to measure American Axle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Axle is operating at the current time. Most of American Axle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Axle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Axle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Axle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Axle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Axle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Axle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.65)
Earnings Share
(0.29)
Revenue Per Share
52.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.05
Return On Assets
0.0198
The market value of American Axle Manufa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Axle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Axle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Axle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Axle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Axle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Axle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Axle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.