Anglogold Ashanti Plc Stock Price Prediction

AU Stock  USD 21.99  0.60  2.81%   
The relative strength momentum indicator of AngloGold Ashanti's share price is above 70 at this time. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling AngloGold, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

73

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
AngloGold Ashanti Plc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AngloGold Ashanti shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AngloGold Ashanti's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AngloGold Ashanti and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AngloGold Ashanti's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AngloGold Ashanti Plc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting AngloGold Ashanti's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.62)
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.38
Wall Street Target Price
22.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.021
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AngloGold Ashanti based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AngloGold stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AngloGold Ashanti over a specific investment horizon. Using AngloGold Ashanti hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AngloGold Ashanti Plc from the perspective of AngloGold Ashanti response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AngloGold Ashanti using AngloGold Ashanti's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AngloGold using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AngloGold Ashanti's stock price.

AngloGold Ashanti Implied Volatility

    
  48.99  
AngloGold Ashanti's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AngloGold Ashanti Plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AngloGold Ashanti's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AngloGold Ashanti stock will not fluctuate a lot when AngloGold Ashanti's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AngloGold Ashanti. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AngloGold Ashanti to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AngloGold because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AngloGold Ashanti after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 21.91  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AngloGold contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AngloGold Ashanti Plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.06% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With AngloGold Ashanti trading at USD 21.99, that is roughly USD 0.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AngloGold Ashanti's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AngloGold Ashanti Plc options at the current volatility level of 48.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out AngloGold Ashanti Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AngloGold Ashanti's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.7521.5724.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.0219.8522.67
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.4822.5024.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AngloGold Ashanti. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AngloGold Ashanti's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AngloGold Ashanti's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AngloGold Ashanti Plc.

AngloGold Ashanti After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AngloGold Ashanti at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AngloGold Ashanti or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AngloGold Ashanti, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AngloGold Ashanti Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AngloGold Ashanti's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AngloGold Ashanti's historical news coverage. AngloGold Ashanti's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.09 and 24.73, respectively. We have considered AngloGold Ashanti's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.99
21.91
After-hype Price
24.73
Upside
AngloGold Ashanti is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AngloGold Ashanti Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.

AngloGold Ashanti Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AngloGold Ashanti is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AngloGold Ashanti backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AngloGold Ashanti, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
2.82
  0.08 
  0.17 
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.99
21.91
0.36 
1,175  
Notes

AngloGold Ashanti Hype Timeline

As of March 28, 2024 AngloGold Ashanti Plc is listed for 21.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. AngloGold is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 21.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on AngloGold Ashanti is about 527.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.16. About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AngloGold Ashanti was presently reported as 8.81. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. AngloGold Ashanti Plc had 1:1 split on the 25th of September 2023. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out AngloGold Ashanti Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AngloGold Ashanti Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AngloGold Ashanti's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AngloGold Ashanti's future price movements. Getting to know how AngloGold Ashanti rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AngloGold Ashanti may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

AngloGold Ashanti Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AngloGold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AngloGold using various technical indicators. When you analyze AngloGold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AngloGold Ashanti Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AngloGold Ashanti stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AngloGold Ashanti Plc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AngloGold Ashanti based on analysis of AngloGold Ashanti hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AngloGold Ashanti's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AngloGold Ashanti's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02730.0250.02870.0209
Price To Sales Ratio2.191.82.082.63

Story Coverage note for AngloGold Ashanti

The number of cover stories for AngloGold Ashanti depends on current market conditions and AngloGold Ashanti's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AngloGold Ashanti is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AngloGold Ashanti's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AngloGold Ashanti Short Properties

AngloGold Ashanti's future price predictability will typically decrease when AngloGold Ashanti's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AngloGold Ashanti Plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AngloGold Ashanti's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AngloGold Ashanti's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding420.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B
When determining whether AngloGold Ashanti Plc is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if AngloGold Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Anglogold Ashanti Plc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Anglogold Ashanti Plc Stock:
Check out AngloGold Ashanti Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
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Is AngloGold Ashanti's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AngloGold Ashanti. If investors know AngloGold will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AngloGold Ashanti listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.62)
Earnings Share
0.1
Revenue Per Share
10.881
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.021
Return On Assets
0.0215
The market value of AngloGold Ashanti Plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AngloGold that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AngloGold Ashanti's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AngloGold Ashanti's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AngloGold Ashanti's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AngloGold Ashanti's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AngloGold Ashanti's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AngloGold Ashanti is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AngloGold Ashanti's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.