Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Stock Price Prediction

ATI Stock  USD 50.92  0.71  1.41%   
As of 28th of March 2024 The relative strength momentum indicator of Allegheny Technologies' share price is above 80 . This suggests that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Oversold Vs Overbought

82

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Allegheny Technologies stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Allegheny Technologies shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Allegheny Technologies' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Allegheny Technologies and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Allegheny Technologies' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Allegheny Technologies Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Allegheny Technologies' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.32)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.53
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.32
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.97
Wall Street Target Price
54.13
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Allegheny Technologies based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Allegheny stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Allegheny Technologies over a specific investment horizon. Using Allegheny Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated from the perspective of Allegheny Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegheny Technologies using Allegheny Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegheny using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegheny Technologies' stock price.

Allegheny Technologies Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Allegheny Technologies' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Allegheny. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Allegheny Technologies stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Allegheny Technologies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allegheny Technologies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allegheny Technologies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
43.4067
Short Percent
0.0885
Short Ratio
3.81
Shares Short Prior Month
5.2 M
50 Day MA
45.3678

Allegheny Technologies Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Allegheny Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegheny. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegheny can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegheny Technologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegheny Technologies.

Allegheny Technologies Implied Volatility

    
  33.53  
Allegheny Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegheny Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegheny Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegheny Technologies' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Allegheny Technologies. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Allegheny Technologies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Allegheny because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Allegheny Technologies after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 50.9  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allegheny contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allegheny Technologies Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.1% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Allegheny Technologies trading at USD 50.92, that is roughly USD 1.07 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allegheny Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allegheny Technologies Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 33.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Allegheny Technologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegheny Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.9249.1751.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
48.9151.1653.41
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
45.9650.5056.06
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.370.410.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allegheny Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allegheny Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allegheny Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allegheny Technologies.

Allegheny Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Allegheny Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allegheny Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allegheny Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Allegheny Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Allegheny Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allegheny Technologies' historical news coverage. Allegheny Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 48.65 and 53.15, respectively. We have considered Allegheny Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
50.92
50.90
After-hype Price
53.15
Upside
Allegheny Technologies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allegheny Technologies is based on 21 months time horizon.

Allegheny Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allegheny Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allegheny Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allegheny Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
2.43
  0.03 
  0.03 
11 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
50.92
50.90
0.04 
2,025  
Notes

Allegheny Technologies Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Allegheny Technologies is traded for 50.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Allegheny is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 50.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Allegheny Technologies is about 2176.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.89. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Allegheny Technologies was presently reported as 10.82. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.2. Allegheny Technologies last dividend was issued on the 16th of August 2016. The entity had 1:2 split on the 30th of November 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Allegheny Technologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Allegheny Technologies Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Allegheny Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allegheny Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Allegheny Technologies rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allegheny Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Allegheny Technologies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Allegheny price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegheny using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegheny charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Allegheny Technologies Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Allegheny Technologies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Allegheny Technologies based on analysis of Allegheny Technologies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Allegheny Technologies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Allegheny Technologies's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0023460.002229
Price To Sales Ratio0.90.66

Story Coverage note for Allegheny Technologies

The number of cover stories for Allegheny Technologies depends on current market conditions and Allegheny Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allegheny Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allegheny Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Allegheny Technologies Short Properties

Allegheny Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Allegheny Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allegheny Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allegheny Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding150 M
Cash And Short Term Investments743.9 M
When determining whether Allegheny Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Allegheny Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Stock:
Check out Allegheny Technologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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Is Allegheny Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegheny Technologies. If investors know Allegheny will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegheny Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.32)
Earnings Share
2.81
Revenue Per Share
32.582
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.053
Return On Assets
0.0537
The market value of Allegheny Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegheny that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegheny Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegheny Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegheny Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegheny Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegheny Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegheny Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegheny Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.