Armour Residential Reit Stock Price Prediction
| ARR Stock | USD 17.51 0.15 0.86% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
ARMOUR Residential REIT stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ARMOUR Residential shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ARMOUR Residential's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ARMOUR Residential and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ARMOUR Residential's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ARMOUR Residential REIT, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ARMOUR Residential's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.571 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.97 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.1 | Wall Street Target Price 19 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ARMOUR Residential based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ARMOUR stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ARMOUR Residential over a specific investment horizon. Using ARMOUR Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ARMOUR Residential REIT from the perspective of ARMOUR Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ARMOUR Residential using ARMOUR Residential's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ARMOUR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ARMOUR Residential's stock price.
ARMOUR Residential Implied Volatility | 363.42 |
ARMOUR Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ARMOUR Residential REIT stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ARMOUR Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ARMOUR Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when ARMOUR Residential's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ARMOUR Residential. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ARMOUR Residential to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ARMOUR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ARMOUR Residential after-hype prediction price | USD 17.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ARMOUR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ARMOUR Residential REIT will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 22.71% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With ARMOUR Residential trading at USD 17.51, that is roughly USD 3.98 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ARMOUR Residential's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ARMOUR Residential REIT options at the current volatility level of 363.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
ARMOUR |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARMOUR Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ARMOUR Residential After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ARMOUR Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ARMOUR Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ARMOUR Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ARMOUR Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ARMOUR Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ARMOUR Residential's historical news coverage. ARMOUR Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.51 and 19.51, respectively. We have considered ARMOUR Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ARMOUR Residential is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ARMOUR Residential REIT is based on 3 months time horizon.
ARMOUR Residential Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ARMOUR Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ARMOUR Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ARMOUR Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.51 | 17.51 | 0.00 |
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ARMOUR Residential Hype Timeline
On the 18th of April 2024 ARMOUR Residential REIT is traded for 17.51. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. ARMOUR is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on ARMOUR Residential is about 594.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.49. About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.71. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ARMOUR Residential REIT recorded a loss per share of 1.86. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of April 2024. The firm had 1:5 split on the 2nd of October 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out ARMOUR Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ARMOUR Residential Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ARMOUR Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how ARMOUR Residential's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ARMOUR Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EFC | Ellington Financial LLC | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.77 | (3.55) | 9.32 | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real | (0.50) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.74 | (4.63) | 10.15 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.17 | (2.97) | 9.06 |
ARMOUR Residential Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ARMOUR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ARMOUR using various technical indicators. When you analyze ARMOUR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ARMOUR Residential Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ARMOUR Residential stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ARMOUR Residential REIT, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ARMOUR Residential based on analysis of ARMOUR Residential hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ARMOUR Residential's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ARMOUR Residential's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.6 | 0.65 | 0.62 | Dividend Yield | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.29 |
Story Coverage note for ARMOUR Residential
The number of cover stories for ARMOUR Residential depends on current market conditions and ARMOUR Residential's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ARMOUR Residential is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ARMOUR Residential's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ARMOUR Residential Short Properties
ARMOUR Residential's future price predictability will typically decrease when ARMOUR Residential's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ARMOUR Residential REIT often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ARMOUR Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ARMOUR Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 258.9 M |
Check out ARMOUR Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for ARMOUR Stock analysis
When running ARMOUR Residential's price analysis, check to measure ARMOUR Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARMOUR Residential is operating at the current time. Most of ARMOUR Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARMOUR Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARMOUR Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ARMOUR Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ARMOUR Residential. If investors know ARMOUR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ARMOUR Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.571 | Dividend Share 5 | Earnings Share (1.86) | Revenue Per Share (0.57) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.261 |
The market value of ARMOUR Residential REIT is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARMOUR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARMOUR Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARMOUR Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARMOUR Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARMOUR Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARMOUR Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARMOUR Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARMOUR Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.