Abercrombie Fitch Stock Price Prediction
| ANF Stock | USD 110.36 1.04 0.95% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Abercrombie Fitch stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Abercrombie Fitch shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Abercrombie Fitch's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Abercrombie Fitch and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Abercrombie Fitch's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Abercrombie Fitch, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Abercrombie Fitch's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.99 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.12 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.56 | Wall Street Target Price 139 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.83 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Abercrombie Fitch based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Abercrombie stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Abercrombie Fitch over a specific investment horizon. Using Abercrombie Fitch hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Abercrombie Fitch from the perspective of Abercrombie Fitch response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Abercrombie Fitch using Abercrombie Fitch's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Abercrombie using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Abercrombie Fitch's stock price.
Abercrombie Fitch Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Abercrombie Fitch's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Abercrombie. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Abercrombie Fitch stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Abercrombie Fitch may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Abercrombie Fitch and may potentially protect profits, hedge Abercrombie Fitch with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 79.3325 | Short Percent 0.1247 | Short Ratio 1.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.7 M | 50 Day MA 122.5498 |
Abercrombie Fitch Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Abercrombie Fitch's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Abercrombie. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Abercrombie can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Abercrombie Fitch. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Abercrombie Fitch's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Abercrombie Fitch.
Abercrombie Fitch Implied Volatility | 56.74 |
Abercrombie Fitch's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Abercrombie Fitch stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Abercrombie Fitch's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Abercrombie Fitch stock will not fluctuate a lot when Abercrombie Fitch's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Abercrombie Fitch. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Abercrombie Fitch to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Abercrombie because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Abercrombie Fitch after-hype prediction price | USD 109.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Abercrombie contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Abercrombie Fitch will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.55% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Abercrombie Fitch trading at USD 110.36, that is roughly USD 3.91 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Abercrombie Fitch's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Abercrombie Fitch options at the current volatility level of 56.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Abercrombie |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Abercrombie Fitch's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Abercrombie Fitch After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Abercrombie Fitch at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Abercrombie Fitch or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Abercrombie Fitch, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Abercrombie Fitch Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Abercrombie Fitch's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Abercrombie Fitch's historical news coverage. Abercrombie Fitch's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 106.91 and 112.99, respectively. We have considered Abercrombie Fitch's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Abercrombie Fitch is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Abercrombie Fitch is based on 3 months time horizon.
Abercrombie Fitch Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Abercrombie Fitch is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Abercrombie Fitch backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Abercrombie Fitch, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 3.04 | 0.41 | 0.12 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
110.36 | 109.95 | 0.37 |
|
Abercrombie Fitch Hype Timeline
On the 20th of April Abercrombie Fitch is traded for 110.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Abercrombie is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 109.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 96.51%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Abercrombie Fitch is about 326.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 110.24. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.22. Abercrombie Fitch last dividend was issued on the 5th of March 2020. The entity had 2:1 split on the 16th of June 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Abercrombie Fitch Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Abercrombie Fitch Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Abercrombie Fitch's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Abercrombie Fitch's future price movements. Getting to know how Abercrombie Fitch's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Abercrombie Fitch may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPS | Gap Inc | 1.50 | 10 per month | 2.35 | 0.02 | 4.93 | (4.11) | 12.81 | |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | 0.46 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.91 | (3.62) | 16.62 | |
| FL | Foot Locker | (1.00) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.07 | (4.77) | 36.40 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 16.46 | (16.45) | 99.19 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.03 | 3.82 | (3.10) | 8.73 | |
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica | (9.34) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.09 | (3.94) | 19.13 | |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | (1.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.26 | (3.05) | 11.97 | |
| HIBB | Hibbett Sports | 1.29 | 8 per month | 2.49 | 0.04 | 3.78 | (4.05) | 12.41 | |
| EXPR | Express | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.45 | (18.14) | 60.18 |
Abercrombie Fitch Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Abercrombie price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Abercrombie using various technical indicators. When you analyze Abercrombie charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Abercrombie Fitch Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Abercrombie Fitch stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Abercrombie Fitch, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Abercrombie Fitch based on analysis of Abercrombie Fitch hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Abercrombie Fitch's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Abercrombie Fitch's related companies. | 2020 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008701 | 0.0208 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.29 | 0.49 |
Story Coverage note for Abercrombie Fitch
The number of cover stories for Abercrombie Fitch depends on current market conditions and Abercrombie Fitch's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Abercrombie Fitch is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Abercrombie Fitch's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Abercrombie Fitch Short Properties
Abercrombie Fitch's future price predictability will typically decrease when Abercrombie Fitch's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Abercrombie Fitch often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Abercrombie Fitch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Abercrombie Fitch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 900.9 M |
Check out Abercrombie Fitch Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Abercrombie Stock please use our How to Invest in Abercrombie Fitch guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Abercrombie Stock analysis
When running Abercrombie Fitch's price analysis, check to measure Abercrombie Fitch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Abercrombie Fitch is operating at the current time. Most of Abercrombie Fitch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Abercrombie Fitch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Abercrombie Fitch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Abercrombie Fitch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios |
Is Abercrombie Fitch's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Abercrombie Fitch. If investors know Abercrombie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Abercrombie Fitch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.99 | Earnings Share 6.22 | Revenue Per Share 85.188 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.211 | Return On Assets 0.1079 |
The market value of Abercrombie Fitch is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abercrombie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abercrombie Fitch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abercrombie Fitch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abercrombie Fitch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abercrombie Fitch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abercrombie Fitch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Abercrombie Fitch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abercrombie Fitch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.