American Homes 4 Stock Price Prediction
| AMH Stock | USD 35.03 0.37 1.07% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
American Homes 4 stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Homes shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Homes' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Homes and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Homes' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Homes 4, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Homes' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.16 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.58 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.69 | Wall Street Target Price 39.76 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Homes based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Homes over a specific investment horizon. Using American Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Homes 4 from the perspective of American Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Homes using American Homes' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Homes' stock price.
American Homes Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Homes' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Homes stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American Homes may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Homes and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Homes with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 35.5194 | Short Percent 0.0466 | Short Ratio 2.61 | Shares Short Prior Month 8 M | 50 Day MA 35.8026 |
American Homes 4 Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Homes' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Homes 4. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Homes' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Homes.
American Homes Implied Volatility | 24.19 |
American Homes' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Homes 4 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Homes' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Homes stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Homes' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Homes. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Homes to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Homes after-hype prediction price | USD 35.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
American |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Homes After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Homes' historical news coverage. American Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.95 and 36.11, respectively. We have considered American Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Homes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Homes 4 is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Homes Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
35.03 | 35.03 | 0.00 |
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American Homes Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April American Homes 4 is traded for 35.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. American is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Homes is about 181.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.01. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Homes 4 has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 117.36. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. The firm had 7:1 split on the 24th of August 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out American Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how American Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
American Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Homes Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Homes stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Homes 4, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Homes based on analysis of American Homes hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Homes's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Homes's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.013 | 0.0256 | 0.0133 | Price To Sales Ratio | 10.84 | 7.06 | 7.53 |
Story Coverage note for American Homes
The number of cover stories for American Homes depends on current market conditions and American Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Homes Short Properties
American Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Homes 4 often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 362.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.4 M |
Check out American Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Homes' price analysis, check to measure American Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Homes is operating at the current time. Most of American Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Homes' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Homes. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share 1.01 | Revenue Per Share 4.485 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 |
The market value of American Homes 4 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.