American International Group Stock Price Prediction

AIG Stock  USD 72.99  0.41  0.56%   
The relative strength indicator of American International's the stock price is roughly 62. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 19th of April 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling American, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

62

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
American International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American International Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American International's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.84)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.74
EPS Estimate Current Year
7
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.97
Wall Street Target Price
83.25
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American International over a specific investment horizon. Using American International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American International Group from the perspective of American International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American International using American International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American International's stock price.

American International Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in American International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American International and may potentially protect profits, hedge American International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
65.4894
Short Percent
0.0132
Short Ratio
1.88
Shares Short Prior Month
7.2 M
50 Day MA
73.7466

American International Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to American International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American International Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American International.

American International Implied Volatility

    
  35.98  
American International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American International Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American International stock will not fluctuate a lot when American International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 72.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American International Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.25% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With American International trading at USD 72.99, that is roughly USD 1.64 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American International Group options at the current volatility level of 35.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out American International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
65.6975.0976.21
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
65.5872.0780.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.551.671.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American International.

American International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American International's historical news coverage. American International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 71.71 and 73.95, respectively. We have considered American International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
72.99
72.83
After-hype Price
73.95
Upside
American International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American International is based on 3 months time horizon.

American International Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.12
  0.16 
  17.89 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
72.99
72.83
0.22 
67.88  
Notes

American International Hype Timeline

On the 19th of April American International is traded for 72.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -17.89. American is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 72.83. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 67.88%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on American International is about 0.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.10. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.11. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American International has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of March 2024. The firm had 1:20 split on the 1st of July 2009. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out American International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American International's future price movements. Getting to know how American International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EQHAxa Equitable Holdings 0.49 11 per month 0.95  0.08  2.12 (1.66) 5.81 
ACGLArch Capital Group 2.90 9 per month 0.84  0.14  2.43 (1.48) 7.70 
ORIOld Republic International(0.05)11 per month 2.08 (0.04) 1.65 (1.63) 10.68 
SLFSun Life Financial 0.62 10 per month 0.87 (0.08) 1.49 (1.37) 4.34 
HIGHartford Financial Services(0.05)19 per month 0.75  0.18  1.70 (0.96) 7.53 
GSHDGoosehead Insurance(1.54)11 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.58 (4.68) 24.83 
ARZGYAssicurazioni Generali SpA 0.00 0 per month 0.56  0.09  1.50 (1.09) 5.08 
IGICInternational General Insurance(0.65)7 per month 1.56  0.04  3.42 (2.52) 10.56 
BRK-ABerkshire Hathaway(1,790)9 per month 0.64  0.11  1.21 (1.14) 3.54 
ESGREnstar Group Limited(0.40)8 per month 1.45  0  2.97 (2.55) 7.64 

American International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American International Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American International Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American International based on analysis of American International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American International's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02290.02050.0210.0225
Price To Sales Ratio0.940.871.031.58

Story Coverage note for American International

The number of cover stories for American International depends on current market conditions and American International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American International Short Properties

American International's future price predictability will typically decrease when American International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American International Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding725.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments251.1 B
When determining whether American International is a strong investment it is important to analyze American International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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Is American International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American International. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.84)
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
4.98
Revenue Per Share
64.882
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.13)
The market value of American International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.