American Airlines Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 29.95  0.01  0.0334%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Airlines Group which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With American Airlines hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of American Airlines Group from the prospective of American Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Airlines over a specific investment horizon. Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

American Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

September 15, 2019
29.95
Current Value
29.87
After-hype Price
36.59
Upside
American Airlines is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Airlines is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Airlines Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.10% 2.24% 0.08%  0.02% 8 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
29.9529.870.27%
273.17% 

American Airlines Hype Timeline

On 15 of September American Airlines is traded for 29.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. American Airlines Group is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 29.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 273.17%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.27% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on American Airlines is about 1224.04% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 29.93. About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.37. American Airlines last dividend was issued on 2019-08-06. The entity had 0:1 split on 2013-12-09. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Airlines Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Hawaiian Holdings 0.07 7 per month 2.62  0.05  4.43 (4.67)  13.22 
American Airlines Group(0.82) 8 per month 0.00 (0.05)  2.55 (3.96)  10.99 
Alaska Air Group(0.58) 7 per month 1.44  0.0414  2.62 (2.85)  6.72 
Avianca Holdings S A(0.13) 7 per month 0.00 (0.12)  5.72 (4.09)  15.97 
China Eastern Airlines Corporat 0.01 6 per month 0.00 (0.07)  3.66 (3.75)  14.72 
Copa Holdings S A Copa Holdin(1.35) 6 per month 1.38  0.0313  2.51 (2.15)  16.05 
Delta Air Lines 0.84 6 per month 1.27  0.0435  2.12 (2.74)  6.78 
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes(0.62) 9 per month 2.86  0.004  5.53 (5.48)  24.18 
LATAM Airlines Group S A(0.17) 7 per month 0.00 (0.0105)  5.26 (5.11)  14.16 
Southwest Airlines Company 0.92 7 per month 1.03  0.06  2.23 (1.94)  6.01 

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Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
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