American Airlines Price Prediction

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring American Airlines headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Airlines Group Inc brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With American Airlines hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of American Airlines Group Inc from the prospective of American Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Airlines over a specific investment horizon. Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines estimiated after-hype price volatility

 Next price density 
 
Embed  
Expected price to next headline
January 19, 2017
47.64
Current Value
Downside upside
47.54
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
51.74
Upside
Upside upside
American Airlines is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Airlines Group is based on 1 month time horizon.

American Airlines Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.16% 1.40% 0.10%  0.04% 3 Events / Month3 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.6447.540.21%
222.22% 

American Airlines Hype Timeline

On 19 of January American Airlines Group Inc is traded for  47.64 . This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.1 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. American Airlines Group Inc is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 47.54. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 222.22%. The closing price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.21% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on American Airlines is about 625.7% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 47.68. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.65. American Airlines Group Inc last dividend was issued on November 3, 2016. This company had 0:1 split on December 9, 2013. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Airlines Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Dencity
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Delta Air Lines Inc 0.61 3 per month 0.00 (0.04)  0.00  2.47 (1.91)  4.38 
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd 0.00 0 per month 1.37  0.23 (1.63)  3.40 (2.65)  10.33 
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd 0.00 0 per month 1.09  0.13 (2.01)  3.97 (1.97)  8.08 
Controladora Vuela Compaa de Aviacin SAB de CV(0.13) 1 per month 0.00 (0.50)  0.00  1.08 (2.58)  5.75 
Flybe Group PLC 0.00 2 per month 1.71  0.02 (2.32)  4.91 (3.19)  9.48 
Hawaiian Holdings Inc 1.65 3 per month 0.00 (0.03)  0.00  3.41 (2.55)  6.75 
JetBlue Airways Corporation 0.29 3 per month 0.00 (0.15)  0.00  1.49 (2.29)  6.30 
American Airlines Group Inc(0.63) 3 per month 0.00 (0.07)  0.00  1.99 (1.89)  4.86