American Airlines Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 24.31  1.12  4.40%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Airlines Group which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With American Airlines hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of American Airlines Group from the prospective of American Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Airlines over a specific investment horizon. Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

American Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 25, 2019
24.31
Current Value
24.66
After-hype Price
31.68
Upside
American Airlines is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Airlines is based on 2 months time horizon.

American Airlines Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.56% 2.34% 0.35%  0.02% 7 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
24.3124.661.44%
371.43% 

American Airlines Hype Timeline

On 25 of August American Airlines is traded for 24.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.35 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. American Airlines Group is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 24.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 371.43%. The price escalation on the next news is anticipated to be 1.44% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.56%. The volatility of related hype on American Airlines is about 8357.14% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 24.29. The company reported last year revenue of 45.04B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.54B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 12.2B. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days.
Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Airlines Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Hawaiian Holdings(0.70) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0233)  3.95 (5.19)  13.22 
American Airlines Group 0.63 7 per month 0.00 (0.15)  2.28 (4.15)  10.99 
Alaska Air Group 0.70 9 per month 0.00 (0.0295)  2.27 (2.86)  6.72 
Avianca Holdings S A(0.09) 7 per month 0.00 (0.13)  4.85 (5.00)  15.97 
China Eastern Airlines Corporat(0.05) 4 per month 0.00 (0.14)  3.37 (5.35)  12.26 
Copa Holdings S A Copa Holdin 0.64 8 per month 1.59  0.1  3.74 (2.61)  16.36 
Delta Air Lines(1.55) 9 per month 1.71  0.08  2.37 (2.79)  6.78 
Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes(0.21) 10 per month 3.25  0.0313  5.51 (6.70)  24.14 
LATAM Airlines Group S A(0.17) 9 per month 0.00 (0.07)  5.26 (5.31)  15.60 
Southwest Airlines Company 0.52 7 per month 0.00  0.06  1.95 (2.32)  6.01 

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Latest Prospective on American Airlines

Check also American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
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