Alcoa Price Prediction

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Alcoa headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Inc brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alcoa hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alcoa Inc from the prospective of Alcoa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa over a specific investment horizon. Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa estimiated after-hype price volatility

 Next price density 
  Expected price to next headline  
March 23, 2017
Current Value
Downside upside
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
Upside upside
Alcoa is not very risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa Inc is based on 1 month time horizon.

Alcoa Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.34% 3.28% 0.61%  0.15% 2 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Alcoa Hype Timeline

As of March 23, 2017 Alcoa Inc is going for 33.69 . This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.61 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Alcoa Inc is suggested to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 33.08. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 183.24%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -1.81% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa is about 768.75% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 33.54. About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alcoa Inc recorded loss per share of 5.94. This company last dividend was issued on August 3, 2016. The firm had 2:1 split on June 12, 2000. Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the next suggested press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Related Hype Analysis