Vanguard Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VOOV Etf | USD 177.17 0.28 0.16% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vanguard SP 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 176.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.99. Vanguard Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vanguard stock prices and determine the direction of Vanguard SP 500's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vanguard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard to cross-verify your projections. Vanguard |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Vanguard Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vanguard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vanguard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vanguard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vanguard's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vanguard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vanguard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vanguard. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Vanguard cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vanguard's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vanguard's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Vanguard is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vanguard SP 500 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Vanguard Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vanguard SP 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 176.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 2.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanguard Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanguard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vanguard Etf Forecast Pattern
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Vanguard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vanguard's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vanguard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 176.27 and 177.60, respectively. We have considered Vanguard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanguard etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanguard etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8411 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3224 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0075 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 81.9858 |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard SP 500. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard
For every potential investor in Vanguard, whether a beginner or expert, Vanguard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanguard Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanguard's price trends.Vanguard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vanguard etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vanguard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vanguard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanguard SP 500 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vanguard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vanguard's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vanguard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vanguard etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vanguard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vanguard etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Vanguard SP 500 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 447.94 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.19) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 177.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 177.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.57) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.28) |
Vanguard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vanguard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vanguard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vanguard etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4953 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6476 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6495 | |||
| Variance | 0.4219 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5115 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4194 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Vanguard
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vanguard position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vanguard will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Vanguard Etf
| 0.97 | VTV | Vanguard Value Index Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | VYM | Vanguard High Dividend | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | IWD | iShares Russell 1000 | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | DGRO | iShares Core Dividend | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | IVE | iShares SP 500 | PairCorr |
Moving against Vanguard Etf
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vanguard could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vanguard when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vanguard - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vanguard SP 500 to buy it.
The correlation of Vanguard is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vanguard moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vanguard SP 500 moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vanguard can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Vanguard Etf
When determining whether Vanguard SP 500 is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vanguard's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vanguard's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vanguard Etf, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
The market value of Vanguard SP 500 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.