Wells Fargo Advantage Fund Market Value
| VMPAX Fund | USD 8.73 0.01 0.11% |
| Symbol | Wells |
Wells Fargo 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Wells Fargo's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Wells Fargo.
| 03/19/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Wells Fargo on March 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Wells Fargo Advantage or generate 0.0% return on investment in Wells Fargo over 30 days. Wells Fargo is related to or competes with Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Short, Goldman Sachs, Diversified Municipal, and Diversified Municipal. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of the funds net assets in municipal securities whose interest is exempt f... More
Wells Fargo Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Wells Fargo's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Wells Fargo Advantage upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.53) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.6857 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1151 |
Wells Fargo Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Wells Fargo's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Wells Fargo's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Wells Fargo historical prices to predict the future Wells Fargo's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.25) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wells Fargo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Wells Fargo Advantage Backtested Returns
We consider Wells Fargo very steady. Wells Fargo Advantage shows Sharpe Ratio of 0.0523, which attests that the fund had a 0.0523% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Wells Fargo Advantage, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check out Wells Fargo's Mean Deviation of 0.0684, market risk adjusted performance of (0.24), and Standard Deviation of 0.107 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0055%. The entity maintains a market beta of 0.0462, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Wells Fargo's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Wells Fargo is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.68 |
Good predictability
Wells Fargo Advantage has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Wells Fargo time series from 19th of March 2024 to 3rd of April 2024 and 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Wells Fargo Advantage price movement. The serial correlation of 0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current Wells Fargo price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Wells Fargo Advantage lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Wells Fargo mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Wells Fargo's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Wells Fargo returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Wells Fargo has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Wells Fargo regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Wells Fargo mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Wells Fargo mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Wells Fargo mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Wells Fargo Lagged Returns
When evaluating Wells Fargo's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Wells Fargo mutual fund have on its future price. Wells Fargo autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Wells Fargo autocorrelation shows the relationship between Wells Fargo mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Wells Fargo Advantage.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Wells Fargo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Wells Fargo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Wells Fargo options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Wells Fargo Correlation, Wells Fargo Volatility and Wells Fargo Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Wells Fargo. For more information on how to buy Wells Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in Wells Fargo guide.Note that the Wells Fargo Advantage information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Wells Fargo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Wells Fargo technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.