Third Avenue Real Fund Market Value
| TVRVX Fund | USD 20.72 0.18 0.88% |
| Symbol | Third |
Third Avenue 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Third Avenue's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Third Avenue.
| 01/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Third Avenue on January 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Third Avenue Real or generate 0.0% return on investment in Third Avenue over 90 days. Third Avenue is related to or competes with Mfs Global, Janus Global, Tcw Global, Third Avenue, Third Avenue, and Third Avenue. The fund seeks to achieve its objective primarily by investing in equity securities, including common stocks and convert... More
Third Avenue Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Third Avenue's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Third Avenue Real upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.49 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.51 |
Third Avenue Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Third Avenue's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Third Avenue's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Third Avenue historical prices to predict the future Third Avenue's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.02) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Third Avenue's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Third Avenue Real Backtested Returns
Third Avenue Real owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0273, which indicates the fund had a -0.0273% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Third Avenue Real exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Third Avenue's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0), coefficient of variation of (9,900), and Variance of 0.9507 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 1.23, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Third Avenue will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.78 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Third Avenue Real has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Third Avenue time series from 24th of January 2024 to 9th of March 2024 and 9th of March 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Third Avenue Real price movement. The serial correlation of -0.78 indicates that around 78.0% of current Third Avenue price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.78 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.64 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.33 |
Third Avenue Real lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Third Avenue mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Third Avenue's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Third Avenue returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Third Avenue has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Third Avenue regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Third Avenue mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Third Avenue mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Third Avenue mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Third Avenue Lagged Returns
When evaluating Third Avenue's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Third Avenue mutual fund have on its future price. Third Avenue autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Third Avenue autocorrelation shows the relationship between Third Avenue mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Third Avenue Real.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Third Avenue in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Third Avenue's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Third Avenue options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Third Avenue Correlation, Third Avenue Volatility and Third Avenue Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Third Avenue. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Third Avenue technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.