Consumer Products Fund Market Value
| RYPDX Fund | USD 43.16 0.46 1.08% |
| Symbol | Consumer |
Consumer Products 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Consumer Products' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Consumer Products.
| 07/28/2023 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Consumer Products on July 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Consumer Products Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Consumer Products over 270 days. Consumer Products is related to or competes with Basic Materials, Nasdaq-100 Fund, Energy Fund, and Biotechnology Fund. Under normal circumstances, the fund invests substantially all of its net assets in equity securities of Consumer Produc... More
Consumer Products Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Consumer Products' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Consumer Products Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.712 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.45 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.02 |
Consumer Products Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Consumer Products' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Consumer Products' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Consumer Products historical prices to predict the future Consumer Products' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0406 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.051 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Consumer Products' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Consumer Products Backtested Returns
We consider Consumer Products very steady. Consumer Products secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the fund had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Consumer Products Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Consumer Products' Downside Deviation of 0.712, risk adjusted performance of 0.0406, and Mean Deviation of 0.5182 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0734%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.65, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Consumer Products' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Consumer Products is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.7 |
Very good reverse predictability
Consumer Products Fund has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Consumer Products time series from 28th of July 2023 to 10th of December 2023 and 10th of December 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Consumer Products price movement. The serial correlation of -0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Consumer Products price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.59 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.78 |
Consumer Products lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Consumer Products mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Consumer Products' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Consumer Products returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Consumer Products has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Consumer Products regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Consumer Products mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Consumer Products mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Consumer Products mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Consumer Products Lagged Returns
When evaluating Consumer Products' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Consumer Products mutual fund have on its future price. Consumer Products autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Consumer Products autocorrelation shows the relationship between Consumer Products mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Consumer Products Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Consumer Products in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Consumer Products' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Consumer Products options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Consumer Products Correlation, Consumer Products Volatility and Consumer Products Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Consumer Products. Note that the Consumer Products information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Consumer Products' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Consumer Products technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.