Royce International Premier Fund Market Value
| RYIPX Fund | USD 14.73 0.04 0.27% |
| Symbol | Royce |
Royce International 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Royce International's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Royce International.
| 10/21/2023 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Royce International on October 21, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Royce International Premier or generate 0.0% return on investment in Royce International over 180 days. Royce International is related to or competes with HUMANA, Barloworld, Thrivent High, Morningstar Unconstrained, High Yield, Via Renewables, and T Rowe. Normally, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in equity securities of such premier companies headquar... More
Royce International Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Royce International's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Royce International Premier upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.86 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.16 |
Royce International Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Royce International's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Royce International's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Royce International historical prices to predict the future Royce International's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.08) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royce International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Royce International Backtested Returns
Royce International maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0614, which implies the entity had a -0.0614% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Royce International exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Royce International's Variance of 0.4303, coefficient of variation of (1,105), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The fund holds a Beta of 0.82, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Royce International's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Royce International is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.15 |
Insignificant predictability
Royce International Premier has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Royce International time series from 21st of October 2023 to 19th of January 2024 and 19th of January 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Royce International price movement. The serial correlation of 0.15 indicates that less than 15.0% of current Royce International price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.15 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Royce International lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Royce International mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Royce International's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Royce International returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Royce International has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Royce International regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Royce International mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Royce International mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Royce International mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Royce International Lagged Returns
When evaluating Royce International's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Royce International mutual fund have on its future price. Royce International autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Royce International autocorrelation shows the relationship between Royce International mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Royce International Premier.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Royce International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Royce International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Royce International options trading.
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Check out Royce International Correlation, Royce International Volatility and Royce International Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Royce International. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Royce International technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.