River Oak Discovery Fund Market Value
| RIVSX Fund | USD 16.00 0.06 0.37% |
| Symbol | River |
River Oak 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to River Oak's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of River Oak.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in River Oak on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding River Oak Discovery or generate 0.0% return on investment in River Oak over 30 days. River Oak is related to or competes with Rock Oak, Live Oak, Black Oak, Pin Oak, and Red Oak. The fund invests primarily in common stocks of U.S More
River Oak Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure River Oak's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess River Oak Discovery upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.67) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.8 |
River Oak Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for River Oak's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as River Oak's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use River Oak historical prices to predict the future River Oak's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.03) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of River Oak's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
River Oak Discovery Backtested Returns
River Oak Discovery maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.1, which implies the entity had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. River Oak Discovery exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check River Oak's Coefficient Of Variation of (2,777), risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Variance of 1.26 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The fund holds a Beta of 1.45, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, River Oak will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.13 |
Insignificant predictability
River Oak Discovery has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between River Oak time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of River Oak Discovery price movement. The serial correlation of 0.13 indicates that less than 13.0% of current River Oak price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.13 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.14 |
River Oak Discovery lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is River Oak mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting River Oak's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of River Oak returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that River Oak has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
River Oak regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If River Oak mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if River Oak mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in River Oak mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
River Oak Lagged Returns
When evaluating River Oak's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of River Oak mutual fund have on its future price. River Oak autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, River Oak autocorrelation shows the relationship between River Oak mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in River Oak Discovery.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards River Oak in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, River Oak's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from River Oak options trading.
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Check out River Oak Correlation, River Oak Volatility and River Oak Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on River Oak. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
River Oak technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.