Novartis Ag Stock Market Value

NVSEF Stock  USD 95.68  0.71  0.74%   
Novartis' market value is the price at which a share of Novartis trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Novartis AG investors about its performance. Novartis is trading at 95.68 as of the 28th of March 2024. This is a -0.74 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 95.68.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Novartis AG and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Novartis over a given investment horizon. Check out Novartis Correlation, Novartis Volatility and Novartis Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novartis.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novartis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Novartis 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novartis' pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novartis.
0.00
01/28/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 1 day
03/28/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Novartis on January 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novartis AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novartis over 60 days. Novartis is related to or competes with Eli Lilly, Johnson Johnson, Merck, Roche Holding, AstraZeneca PLC, and Novartis. Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products worldwide More

Novartis Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novartis' pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novartis AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Novartis Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novartis' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novartis' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novartis historical prices to predict the future Novartis' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novartis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
94.1295.6897.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
81.2782.83105.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
93.2294.7896.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
95.6895.6895.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novartis. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novartis' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novartis' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Novartis AG.

Novartis AG Backtested Returns

Novartis AG has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0388, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0388% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Novartis exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Novartis' Standard Deviation of 1.53, mean deviation of 0.9092, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0015 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.85, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Novartis are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Novartis is likely to outperform the market. Novartis AG has an expected return of -0.0604%. Please make sure to verify Novartis AG maximum drawdown, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the Daily Balance Of Power and price action indicator , to decide if Novartis AG performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.05  

Very weak reverse predictability

Novartis AG has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novartis time series from 28th of January 2024 to 27th of February 2024 and 27th of February 2024 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novartis AG price movement. The serial correlation of -0.05 indicates that only as little as 5.0% of current Novartis price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.05
Spearman Rank Test-0.11
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance6.15

Novartis AG lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Novartis pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novartis' pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novartis returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novartis has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Novartis regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novartis pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novartis pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novartis pink sheet over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Novartis Lagged Returns

When evaluating Novartis' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novartis pink sheet have on its future price. Novartis autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novartis autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novartis pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novartis AG.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Check out Novartis Correlation, Novartis Volatility and Novartis Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novartis.
Note that the Novartis AG information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novartis' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Complementary Tools for Novartis Pink Sheet analysis

When running Novartis' price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Novartis technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Novartis technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Novartis trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...