Novavax Stock Market Value
| NVAX Stock | USD 3.89 0.10 2.51% |
| Symbol | Novavax |
Novavax Price To Book Ratio
Is Novavax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. If investors know Novavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novavax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.41) | Revenue Per Share 9.762 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) | Return On Assets (0.17) | Return On Equity (8.98) |
The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novavax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novavax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novavax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Novavax 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novavax's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novavax.
| 01/19/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novavax on January 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novavax or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novavax over 90 days. Novavax is related to or competes with Home Federal, Betterware, Provident Bancorp, Heartland Financial, Nordea Bank, Conflux Network, and Citigroup Capital. Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prev... More
Novavax Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novavax's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novavax upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 49.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.24) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.11 |
Novavax Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novavax's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novavax's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novavax historical prices to predict the future Novavax's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 8.0E-4 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.51) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.02) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novavax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novavax Backtested Returns
We consider Novavax moderately volatile. Novavax has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0192, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0192% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for Novavax, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Novavax's Risk Adjusted Performance of 8.0E-4, mean deviation of 3.72, and Standard Deviation of 5.83 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Novavax has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 3.5, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Novavax will likely underperform. Novavax right now secures a risk of 5.9%. Please verify Novavax value at risk, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the Rate Of Daily Change and relative strength index , to decide if Novavax will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.62 |
Very good reverse predictability
Novavax has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novavax time series from 19th of January 2024 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novavax price movement. The serial correlation of -0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Novavax price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.2 |
Novavax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novavax stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novavax's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novavax returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novavax has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novavax regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novavax stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novavax stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novavax stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novavax Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novavax's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novavax stock have on its future price. Novavax autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novavax autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novavax stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novavax.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Novavax Correlation, Novavax Volatility and Novavax Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novavax. For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide.Note that the Novavax information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novavax's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Complementary Tools for Novavax Stock analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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