American Balanced Fund Market Value
| BALFX Fund | USD 33.01 0.32 0.98% |
| Symbol | American |
American Balanced 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Balanced's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Balanced.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Balanced on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Balanced Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Balanced over 30 days. American Balanced is related to or competes with American Funds, American Funds, American Balanced, American Balanced, American Balanced, and American Balanced. The fund uses a balanced approach to invest in a broad range of securities, including common stocks and investment-grade... More
American Balanced Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Balanced's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Balanced Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5282 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.9721 |
American Balanced Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Balanced's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Balanced's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Balanced historical prices to predict the future American Balanced's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.062 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0579 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Balanced Backtested Returns
We consider American Balanced very steady. American Balanced secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0821, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0821% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for American Balanced Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Balanced's risk adjusted performance of 0.062, and Mean Deviation of 0.4 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0433%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.75, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Balanced's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Balanced is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.40 |
Average predictability
American Balanced Fund has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Balanced time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Balanced price movement. The serial correlation of 0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current American Balanced price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.4 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.12 |
American Balanced lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Balanced mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Balanced's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Balanced returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Balanced has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Balanced regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Balanced mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Balanced mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Balanced mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Balanced Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Balanced's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Balanced mutual fund have on its future price. American Balanced autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Balanced autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Balanced mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Balanced Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with American Balanced
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Balanced position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Balanced will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Mutual Fund
| 0.96 | AMFCX | American Mutual | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | AMFFX | American Mutual | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | RNCCX | American Funds Me | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Balanced could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Balanced when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Balanced - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Balanced Fund to buy it.
The correlation of American Balanced is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Balanced moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Balanced moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Balanced can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American Balanced Correlation, American Balanced Volatility and American Balanced Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Balanced. Note that the American Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
American Balanced technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.