Africa Oil (Sweden) Market Value
| AOI Stock | SEK 18.81 0.41 2.13% |
| Symbol | Africa |
Africa Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Africa Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Africa Oil.
| 02/28/2023 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Africa Oil on February 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Africa Oil Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Africa Oil over 420 days. Africa Oil is related to or competes with SolTech Energy, Minesto AB, SaltX Technology, Azelio AB, and Impact Coatings. Africa Oil Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and development company in Keny... More
Africa Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Africa Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Africa Oil Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.62 |
Africa Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Africa Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Africa Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Africa Oil historical prices to predict the future Africa Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0091 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.29) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Africa Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Africa Oil Corp Backtested Returns
Africa Oil Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0259, which signifies that the company had a -0.0259% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Africa Oil Corp exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Africa Oil's Downside Deviation of 3.05, mean deviation of 1.57, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0091 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.37, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Africa Oil's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Africa Oil is expected to be smaller as well. Africa Oil Corp has an expected return of -0.062%. Please make sure to confirm Africa Oil Corp semi variance, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to decide if Africa Oil Corp performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.45 |
Modest reverse predictability
Africa Oil Corp has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Africa Oil time series from 28th of February 2023 to 26th of September 2023 and 26th of September 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Africa Oil Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current Africa Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.45 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.8 |
Africa Oil Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Africa Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Africa Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Africa Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Africa Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Africa Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Africa Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Africa Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Africa Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Africa Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Africa Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Africa Oil stock have on its future price. Africa Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Africa Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Africa Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Africa Oil Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Africa Oil
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Africa Oil position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Africa Oil will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Africa Stock
| 0.9 | SHB-B | Svenska Handelsbanken | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | SHB-A | Svenska Handelsbanken Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | SEB-C | Skandinaviska Enskilda | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Africa Oil could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Africa Oil when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Africa Oil - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Africa Oil Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Africa Oil is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Africa Oil moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Africa Oil Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Africa Oil can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Africa Oil Correlation, Africa Oil Volatility and Africa Oil Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Africa Oil. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for Africa Stock analysis
When running Africa Oil's price analysis, check to measure Africa Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Africa Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Africa Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Africa Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Africa Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Africa Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Africa Oil technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.