Polychem Indonesia (Indonesia) Market Value
| ADMG Stock | IDR 122.00 2.00 1.67% |
| Symbol | Polychem |
Polychem Indonesia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polychem Indonesia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polychem Indonesia.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Polychem Indonesia on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polychem Indonesia Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polychem Indonesia over 30 days. Polychem Indonesia is related to or competes with Bakrie Sumatera, and Perusahaan Perkebunan. Polychem Indonesia Tbk engages in the chemical and polyester businesses More
Polychem Indonesia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polychem Indonesia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polychem Indonesia Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.16 |
Polychem Indonesia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polychem Indonesia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polychem Indonesia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polychem Indonesia historical prices to predict the future Polychem Indonesia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.45) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4021 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polychem Indonesia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Polychem Indonesia Tbk Backtested Returns
Polychem Indonesia Tbk maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.16, which implies the firm had a -0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Polychem Indonesia Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Polychem Indonesia's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08), coefficient of variation of (729.28), and Variance of 2.59 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of -0.57, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Polychem Indonesia are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Polychem Indonesia is likely to outperform the market. Polychem Indonesia Tbk has an expected return of -0.21%. Please make sure to check Polychem Indonesia Tbk jensen alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Polychem Indonesia Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.85 |
Very good predictability
Polychem Indonesia Tbk has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polychem Indonesia time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polychem Indonesia Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current Polychem Indonesia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.85 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.69 |
Polychem Indonesia Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Polychem Indonesia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polychem Indonesia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polychem Indonesia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polychem Indonesia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Polychem Indonesia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polychem Indonesia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polychem Indonesia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polychem Indonesia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Polychem Indonesia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Polychem Indonesia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polychem Indonesia stock have on its future price. Polychem Indonesia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polychem Indonesia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polychem Indonesia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polychem Indonesia Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Polychem Indonesia
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Polychem Indonesia position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Polychem Indonesia will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Polychem Stock
| 0.65 | GDST | Gunawan Dianjaya Steel | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | ALMI | Alumindo Light Metal | PairCorr |
Moving against Polychem Stock
| 0.81 | AGII | Aneka Gas Industri | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | UNTR | United Tractors Tbk Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | AMRT | Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Polychem Indonesia could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Polychem Indonesia when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Polychem Indonesia - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Polychem Indonesia Tbk to buy it.
The correlation of Polychem Indonesia is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Polychem Indonesia moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Polychem Indonesia Tbk moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Polychem Indonesia can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Polychem Indonesia Correlation, Polychem Indonesia Volatility and Polychem Indonesia Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Polychem Indonesia. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Polychem Stock analysis
When running Polychem Indonesia's price analysis, check to measure Polychem Indonesia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Polychem Indonesia is operating at the current time. Most of Polychem Indonesia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Polychem Indonesia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Polychem Indonesia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Polychem Indonesia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Polychem Indonesia technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.