American Airlines Backtesting

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of American Airlines Group Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in American Airlines over given investment horizon. Check also American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Volatility as well as analyze American Airlines Alpha and Beta and American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines 'What if' Analysis

January 28, 2017
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
February 27, 2017
If you would invest  0.00  in American Airlines on January 28, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Airlines Group Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Airlines over 30 days. American Airlines is related to or competes with HAWAIIAN HLDGS, JETBLUE AIRWAYS, ALASKA AIR, DELTA AIR, and SOUTHWEST AIRLINE. As of December 31 2015 American Airlines Group Inc operated a mainline fleet of 946 aircraft

American Airlines Upside/Downside Indicators


American Airlines Market Premium Indicators

American Airlines Group lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
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American Airlines regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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American Airlines Group Backtested Returns

We consider American Airlines not too risky. American Airlines Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.125 which signifies that American Airlines Group had 0.125% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 1 month. Our philosophy in foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for American Airlines Group Inc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm American Airlines Group Mean Deviation of 1.4 and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02) to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1591%. American Airlines has performance score of 8 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 2.1599 which signifies that as market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Airlines will likely underperform.. Although it is extremely important to respect American Airlines Group historical returns, it is beter to be realistic about what you can do with the information about equity current trading patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing American Airlines Group technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1591% will be sustainable into the future. American Airlines Group right now shows risk of 1.2734%. Please confirm American Airlines Group Treynor Ratio, Expected Short fall and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Potential Upside to decide if American Airlines Group will be following its price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure 
15 days auto-correlation(0.61) 

Very good reverse predictability

American Airlines Group Inc has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Airlines time series from January 28, 2017 to February 12, 2017 and February 12, 2017 to February 27, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Airlines Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current American Airlines price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that American Airlines Group Inc has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of American Airlines for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.61
Spearman Rank Test -0.38
Price Variance 0.22
Lagged Price Variance 0.7

American Airlines Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
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American Airlines Performance vs NYSE

The median price of American Airlines for the period between Sat, Jan 28, 2017 and Mon, Feb 27, 2017 is 46.32 with a coefficient of variation of 3.06. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 1.41, arithmetic mean of 46.14, and mean deviation of 1.11. The Stock did not receive any noticable media coverage during the period.
February 9, 2017American Airlines Dividend Paid
Price Growth (%)  
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