Novartis Ag Adr Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| NVS Stock | USD 98.35 1.07 1.10% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Novartis AG ADR is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Novartis buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Novartis positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Novartis' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Novartis' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 105.53 | Target Price 112.75 | Hype Value 98.37 | Market Value 98.35 | Naive Value 97.6 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Novartis AG ADR given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Novartis. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Novartis AG ADR, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Novartis |
Execute Novartis Buy or Sell Advice
The Novartis recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Novartis AG ADR. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Novartis AG ADR or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Novartis' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Novartis Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Novartis AG ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novartis AG ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 19th of April 2024 Novartis paid $ 3.777 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from fool.com: Why Novartis Stock Topped the Market on Tuesday |
Novartis Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Novartis' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Novartis' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Novartis daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Novartis AG ADR price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Novartis returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Novartis.
| Mean Return | -0.1 | Value At Risk | -1.53 | Potential Upside | 1.93 | Standard Deviation | 1.10 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Novartis historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Novartis Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Novartis is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novartis AG ADR backward and forwards among themselves. Novartis' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Novartis' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Principal Financial Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 2.1 M | Envestnet Asset Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Wells Fargo & Co | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | State Street Corporation | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Ubs Group Ag | 2023-12-31 | 1.7 M | Cullen Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.5 M | Dodge & Cox | 2023-12-31 | 13.2 M | Primecap Management Company | 2023-12-31 | 12.9 M |
Novartis Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (2.2B) | (1.5B) | 2.7B | (4.9B) | 5.9B | 6.2B | |
| Free Cash Flow | 11.4B | 11.1B | 12.1B | 11.6B | 11.7B | 9.1B | |
| Depreciation | 5.8B | 6.5B | 6.1B | 7.2B | 8.3B | 4.3B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (2.1B) | (3.1B) | (18.2B) | (1.1B) | (3.4B) | (3.6B) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 2.3B | 2.6B | 3.0B | 2.7B | 2.8B | 2.6B | |
| Net Income | 7.1B | 8.1B | 24.0B | 7.0B | 8.6B | 8.8B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 11.1B | 9.7B | 12.4B | 7.5B | 13.4B | 7.7B | |
| Change To Inventory | (382M) | (543M) | 81M | (830M) | (546M) | (518.7M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 6.6B | 7.0B | 7.4B | 7.5B | 7.3B | 5.0B | |
| Investments | (2.2B) | (13.2B) | 6.8B | 1.5B | 5.9B | 6.2B | |
| Net Borrowings | (5.0B) | 7.1B | (6.0B) | (2.6B) | (2.3B) | (2.2B) | |
| Change To Netincome | (2.1B) | 2.8B | (13.5B) | 3.7B | 3.3B | 3.5B |
Novartis Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Novartis or Pharmaceuticals sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Novartis' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Novartis stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Novartis Volatility Alert
Novartis AG ADR exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.12 and kurtosis of 1.94. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Novartis' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Novartis' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Novartis Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Novartis' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Novartis' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Novartis and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Novartis or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Novartis' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novartis by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Novartis to competition |
| Fundamentals | Novartis | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.2 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0865 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.32 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.31 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 216.21 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.04 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 6.92 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.21 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 9.22 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 4.10 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 4.14 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 46.66 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 36.74 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 18.47 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 8.57 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 4.64 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 8.84 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 26.35 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.47 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.31 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 19.45 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 14.46 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.77 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 4.10 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 5.09 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 113.07 | |
| Number Of Employees | 76.06 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.48 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 198.95 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 99.94 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 49.65 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 4.09 B | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 22.84 B | 9.34 B |
Novartis Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Novartis . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Novartis Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Novartis AG ADR? Buying financial instruments such as Novartis Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 31.1B | 28.0B | 26.3B | 18.6B | Total Assets | 131.8B | 117.5B | 99.9B | 103.1B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Novartis in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Novartis Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Complementary Tools for Novartis Stock analysis
When running Novartis' price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novartis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novartis. If investors know Novartis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novartis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.215 | Dividend Share 3.919 | Earnings Share 4.1 | Revenue Per Share 23.168 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
The market value of Novartis AG ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novartis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novartis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novartis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novartis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novartis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novartis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.