Graphic Packaging Holding Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

GPK Stock  USD 29.18  0.09  0.31%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Graphic Packaging Holding is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Graphic Packaging buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding GPK positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Graphic Packaging's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Graphic Packaging's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
32.98
Target Price
28.3
Hype Value
29.18
Market Value
29.18
Naive Value
29.33
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Graphic Packaging Holding given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Graphic Packaging. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Graphic Packaging Holding, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Graphic Packaging Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Graphic and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Graphic Packaging Holding. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.

Execute Graphic Packaging Buy or Sell Advice

The Graphic recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Graphic Packaging Holding. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Graphic Packaging Holding or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Graphic Packaging's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Graphic PackagingBuy Graphic Packaging
Strong Buy

Market Performance

GoodDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Barely shadows the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Graphic Packaging Holding has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1097, Jensen Alpha of 0.1439, Total Risk Alpha of (0.07), Sortino Ratio of 0.1124 and Treynor Ratio of 0.2738
Our trade recommendations module complements current analysts and expert consensus on Graphic Packaging Holding. It analyzes the firm potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure Graphic Packaging Holding is not overpriced, please check out all Graphic Packaging fundamentals, including its shares outstanding, net income, price to earnings to growth, as well as the relationship between the price to book and current ratio . Given that Graphic Packaging Holding has a price to book of 3.20 X, we strongly advise you to confirm Graphic Packaging Holding market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Graphic Packaging Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Why the Market Dipped But Graphic Packaging Gained Today

Graphic Packaging Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Graphic Packaging's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Graphic Packaging's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Graphic Packaging daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Graphic Packaging Holding price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Graphic Packaging returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Graphic Packaging.
Mean Return
0.27
Value At Risk
-1.82
Potential Upside
2.79
Standard Deviation
1.47
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Graphic Packaging historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Graphic Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Graphic Packaging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graphic Packaging Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Graphic Packaging's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Graphic Packaging's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Impax Asset Management Group Plc2023-12-31
5.7 M
Handelsbanken Fonder Ab2023-12-31
5.5 M
Lsv Asset Management2023-12-31
M
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, Llc2023-12-31
4.9 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
4.8 M
Neuberger Berman Group Llc2023-12-31
4.5 M
Amundi2023-12-31
4.1 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
4.1 M
Principal Financial Group Inc2023-12-31
4.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
31.4 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
30.6 M
Note, although Graphic Packaging's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Graphic Packaging Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory(72.8M)34.8M(80M)(268M)(117M)(111.2M)
Change In Cash82.4M26.1M(7M)(17M)12M9.1M
Free Cash Flow312.9M199.3M(193M)541M340M357M
Depreciation447.2M475.8M489M553M619M650.0M
Other Non Cash Items39.7M19.8M18.6M102M1.6B1.7B
Dividends Paid111M112.7M102.8M92M(123M)(116.9M)
Capital Expenditures352.9M646.3M802M549M804M844.2M
Net Income278.1M203.3M216M522M723M759.2M
End Period Cash Flow152.9M179M172M155M162M84.1M
Change To Netincome67.8M221.3M124M242M278.3M292.2M
Net Borrowings(109.1M)780.2M2.2B(530M)(609.5M)(579.0M)
Investments187.7M(668.7M)(2.4B)119M(943M)(895.9M)

Graphic Packaging Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Graphic Packaging or Containers & Packaging sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Graphic Packaging's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Graphic stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.97
σ
Overall volatility
1.53
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Graphic Packaging Volatility Alert

Graphic Packaging Holding has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.86 and kurtosis of 2.81. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Graphic Packaging's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Graphic Packaging's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Graphic Packaging Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Graphic Packaging's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Graphic Packaging's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Graphic Packaging and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Graphic Packaging or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Graphic Packaging's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graphic Packaging by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Graphic Packaging to competition
FundamentalsGraphic PackagingPeer Average
Return On Equity0.29-0.31
Return On Asset0.0752-0.14
Profit Margin0.08 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.14 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation14.37 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding306.05 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders1.29 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions98.71 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted13.81 M4.71 M
Price To Earning17.46 X28.72 X
Price To Book3.20 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.94 X11.42 X
Revenue9.43 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.84 B27.38 B
EBITDA1.87 B3.9 B
Net Income723 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents150 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share0.27 X5.01 X
Total Debt5.62 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity2.81 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.30 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share9.09 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations1.14 B971.22 M
Short Ratio4.35 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share2.34 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.13 X4.89 X
Target Price30.34
Number Of Employees23.5 K18.84 K
Beta0.84-0.15
Market Capitalization8.9 B19.03 B
Total Asset11.18 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings1.03 B9.33 B
Working Capital256 M1.48 B
Note: Acquisition by Charles Lischer of 7167 shares of Graphic Packaging subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Graphic Packaging Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Graphic . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Graphic Packaging Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Graphic Packaging Holding? Buying financial instruments such as Graphic Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total5.8B5.3B5.6B5.9B
Total Assets10.5B10.3B11.2B11.7B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Graphic Packaging in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run SRI Sustainable Growth Thematic Idea Now

SRI Sustainable Growth
SRI Sustainable Growth Theme
Socially responsible investments that include companies making a positive, sustainable or social impact and exclude those making a negative impact. The SRI Sustainable Growth theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize SRI Sustainable Growth Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Graphic Packaging Holding is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Graphic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock:
Check out Graphic Packaging Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

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When running Graphic Packaging's price analysis, check to measure Graphic Packaging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Graphic Packaging is operating at the current time. Most of Graphic Packaging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Graphic Packaging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Graphic Packaging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Graphic Packaging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Graphic Packaging's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graphic Packaging. If investors know Graphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graphic Packaging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.26
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
2.34
Revenue Per Share
30.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Graphic Packaging Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graphic Packaging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graphic Packaging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graphic Packaging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graphic Packaging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.