Freshpet Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FRPT Stock | USD 103.84 1.31 1.25% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your bold attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding Freshpet is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Freshpet buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Freshpet positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Freshpet's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Freshpet's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 103.98 | Target Price 87.05 | Hype Value 103.99 | Market Value 103.84 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Freshpet given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Freshpet. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Freshpet, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Freshpet |
Execute Freshpet Buy or Sell Advice
The Freshpet recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Freshpet. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Freshpet or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Freshpet's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Freshpet Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 766.89 M. Net Loss for the year was (33.61 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 186.03 M. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Can Archer Daniels Improve Despite Soft Nutrition Unit |
Freshpet Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Freshpet's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Freshpet's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Freshpet daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Freshpet price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Freshpet returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Freshpet.
| Mean Return | 0.35 | Value At Risk | -2.48 | Potential Upside | 2.86 | Standard Deviation | 2.80 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Freshpet historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Freshpet Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Freshpet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Freshpet backward and forwards among themselves. Freshpet's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Freshpet's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Riverbridge Partners Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.1 M | Capital World Investors | 2023-12-31 | 974.4 K | Jennison Associates Llc | 2023-12-31 | 915.8 K | Eagle Asset Management, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 874 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 828 K | Armistice Capital, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 803.3 K | State Street Corporation | 2023-12-31 | 747.3 K | Marshall Wace Asset Management Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 738.6 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 4.7 M | Champlain Investment Partners, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M |
Freshpet Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (3.3M) | (6.8M) | (16.8M) | (26.2M) | (1.2M) | (1.3M) | |
| Change In Cash | 1.9M | 57.8M | 5.5M | 59.9M | 164.1M | 172.3M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (54.3M) | (113.4M) | (321.5M) | (273.3M) | (163.2M) | (155.0M) | |
| Depreciation | 15.9M | 21.1M | 30.5M | 34.6M | 58.5M | 61.4M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 210.9K | 834K | 2.5M | 9.7M | 14.2M | 14.9M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 70.6M | 134.6M | 322.1M | 230.1M | 239.1M | 251.0M | |
| Net Income | (1.4M) | (3.2M) | (29.7M) | (59.5M) | (33.6M) | (31.9M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 9.5M | 67.2M | 72.8M | 132.7M | 296.9M | 311.7M | |
| Investments | (70.6M) | (27.9M) | (322.1M) | (233.4M) | (239.1M) | (227.1M) | |
| Change Receivables | (3.9M) | 410.0K | 166K | (16.4M) | (14.7M) | (14.0M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 53.8M | 53.8M | (55.9M) | (3.3M) | (3.8M) | (3.9M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 8.7M | 12.9M | 29.2M | 35.0M | 40.3M | 42.3M |
Freshpet Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Freshpet or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Freshpet's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Freshpet stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.30 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Freshpet Volatility Alert
Freshpet has relatively low volatility with skewness of 5.11 and kurtosis of 35.25. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Freshpet's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Freshpet's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Freshpet Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Freshpet's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Freshpet's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Freshpet and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Freshpet or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Freshpet's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Freshpet by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Freshpet to competition |
| Fundamentals | Freshpet | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0339 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0143 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.04) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.07 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.23 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 48.29 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.72 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 97.28 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 5.38 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Book | 5.50 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 6.84 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 766.89 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 186.03 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 28.78 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (33.61 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 327.18 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 6.84 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 425.06 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.08 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 6.42 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 19.75 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 75.94 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 8.74 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.70) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (7.33) X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 121.53 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.08 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.23 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 5.1 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.46 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (328.73 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 338.1 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 25.39 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Insider Trading [view details]
Freshpet Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Freshpet . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5474.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.70) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 104.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 104.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.29) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.31) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.9 |
About Freshpet Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Freshpet? Buying financial instruments such as Freshpet Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 7.1M | 5.7M | 425.1M | 446.3M | Total Assets | 784.4M | 1.1B | 1.5B | 1.5B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Freshpet in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Beers Thematic Idea Now
Beers
Companies involved in production and distribution of domestic and international beer. The Beers theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Beers Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Freshpet Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Freshpet Stock please use our How to Invest in Freshpet guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for Freshpet Stock analysis
When running Freshpet's price analysis, check to measure Freshpet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Freshpet is operating at the current time. Most of Freshpet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Freshpet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Freshpet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Freshpet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Freshpet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freshpet. If investors know Freshpet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Freshpet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.093 | Earnings Share (0.70) | Revenue Per Share 15.923 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.299 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Freshpet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Freshpet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Freshpet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Freshpet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Freshpet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Freshpet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Freshpet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Freshpet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Freshpet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.