Essa Bancorp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

ESSA Stock  USD 17.86  0.78  4.57%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding ESSA Bancorp is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides ESSA Bancorp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ESSA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of ESSA Bancorp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting ESSA Bancorp's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
17.95
Target Price
18
Hype Value
17.14
Market Value
17.86
Naive Value
16.52
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell ESSA Bancorp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards ESSA Bancorp. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for ESSA Bancorp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out ESSA Bancorp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade ESSA Stock refer to our How to Trade ESSA Stock guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as ESSA and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards ESSA Bancorp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.

Execute ESSA Bancorp Buy or Sell Advice

The ESSA recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on ESSA Bancorp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in ESSA Bancorp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute ESSA Bancorp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell ESSA BancorpBuy ESSA Bancorp
Strong Sell

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon ESSA Bancorp has a Mean Deviation of 1.8, Standard Deviation of 2.4 and Variance of 5.77
Our trade advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on ESSA Bancorp and to analyze the company potential to grow next year. To make sure ESSA Bancorp is not overpriced, please confirm all ESSA Bancorp fundamentals, including its debt to equity, market capitalization, and the relationship between the net income and earnings per share . Given that ESSA Bancorp has a number of shares shorted of 61.19 K, we urge you to verify ESSA Bancorp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself next year given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

ESSA Bancorp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

ESSA Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
ESSA Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: ESSA Bancorp Stock Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average of 17.35 - MarketBeat

ESSA Bancorp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of ESSA Bancorp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of ESSA Bancorp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of ESSA Bancorp daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use ESSA Bancorp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of ESSA Bancorp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for ESSA Bancorp.
Mean Return
-0.17
Value At Risk
-4.46
Potential Upside
3.43
Standard Deviation
2.40
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of ESSA Bancorp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

ESSA Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as ESSA Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ESSA Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. ESSA Bancorp's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase ESSA Bancorp's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
71.9 K
Pinnacle Holdings, Llc2023-12-31
60 K
Philadelphia Trust Co2023-12-31
51.9 K
Empowered Funds, Llc2023-12-31
38.8 K
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
32.3 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
32.1 K
Fourthstone Llc2023-09-30
31.1 K
Envestnet Asset Management Inc2023-12-31
30 K
Mercer Global Advisors Inc.2023-12-31
30 K
Fj Capital Management Llc2023-09-30
M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
486.1 K
Note, although ESSA Bancorp's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

ESSA Bancorp Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash103.7M3.0M(131.0M)57.5M66.1M69.4M
Free Cash Flow18.7M19.0M22.1M20.9M24.0M14.6M
Depreciation2.2M2.2M2.2M(280K)(322K)(305.9K)
Other Non Cash Items4.0M(1.9M)744K(18.6M)(16.7M)(15.9M)
Capital Expenditures1.1M401K571K955K859.5K938.1K
Net Income14.4M16.4M20.1M18.6M21.4M22.4M
End Period Cash Flow52.2M155.9M158.9M27.9M32.1M44.5M
Dividends Paid4.6M4.7M5.3M5.9M5.3M5.6M
Investments16.2M27.4M(128.0M)(377.1M)(339.4M)(322.4M)
Change Receivables415K(695K)1.4M(1.2M)(1.0M)(986.7K)
Net Borrowings(50.2M)(122.4M)(125.9M)230.8M265.4M278.7M
Change To Netincome1.3M6.2M2.3M3.0M3.5M4.8M

ESSA Bancorp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ESSA Bancorp or Thrifts & Mortgage Finance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ESSA Bancorp's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ESSA stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.11
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.52
σ
Overall volatility
2.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

ESSA Bancorp Volatility Alert

ESSA Bancorp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.05 and kurtosis of 0.73. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure ESSA Bancorp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact ESSA Bancorp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

ESSA Bancorp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing ESSA Bancorp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze ESSA Bancorp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between ESSA Bancorp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as ESSA Bancorp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of ESSA Bancorp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ESSA Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare ESSA Bancorp to competition
FundamentalsESSA BancorpPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0826-0.31
Return On Asset0.0087-0.14
Profit Margin0.26 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.34 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation491.42 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding10.13 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders15.96 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions44.60 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted61.19 K4.71 M
Price To Earning13.54 X28.72 X
Price To Book0.81 X9.51 X
Price To Sales2.64 X11.42 X
Revenue69.3 M9.43 B
Gross Profit68.28 M27.38 B
EBITDA23.26 M3.9 B
Net Income18.58 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents101.61 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share10.38 X5.01 X
Total Debt374.65 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity9.05 %48.70 %
Book Value Per Share22.91 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations20.86 M971.22 M
Short Ratio2.53 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.86 X3.12 X
Target Price20.0
Number Of Employees23218.84 K
Beta0.32-0.15
Market Capitalization180.95 M19.03 B
Total Asset2.29 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings151.86 M9.33 B
Z Score0.458.72
Annual Yield0.03 %
Five Year Return2.59 %
Note: Disposition of 923 shares by Charles Hangen of ESSA Bancorp at 15.01 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

ESSA Bancorp Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as ESSA . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About ESSA Bancorp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell ESSA Bancorp? Buying financial instruments such as ESSA Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Total Stockholder Equity212.3M219.7M252.7M170.2M
Total Assets1.9B2.3B2.6B1.5B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having ESSA Bancorp in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

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Entertainment
Entertainment Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Entertainment theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Entertainment Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether ESSA Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ESSA Bancorp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Essa Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Essa Bancorp Stock:
Check out ESSA Bancorp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade ESSA Stock refer to our How to Trade ESSA Stock guide.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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Is ESSA Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ESSA Bancorp. If investors know ESSA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ESSA Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.10)
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
1.86
Revenue Per Share
7.061
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of ESSA Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ESSA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ESSA Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ESSA Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ESSA Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ESSA Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ESSA Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ESSA Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ESSA Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.