Carnival Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| CCL Stock | USD 14.12 0.22 1.58% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Carnival is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Carnival buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Carnival positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Carnival's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Carnival's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 12.46 | Target Price 16.69 | Hype Value 14.12 | Market Value 14.12 | Naive Value 14.11 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Carnival given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Carnival. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Carnival, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Carnival |
Execute Carnival Buy or Sell Advice
The Carnival recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Carnival. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Carnival or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Carnival's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost neglects market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Carnival Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Carnival generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 31.89 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.21, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Carnival has a current ratio of 0.64, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Carnival until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Carnival's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Carnival sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Carnival's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 21.59 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (74 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 10.7 B. | |
| About 60.0% of Carnival shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Institutional owners may ignore Carnival Corporation plcs recent US2.0b market cap decline as longer-term profits stay in the green |
Carnival Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Carnival's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Carnival's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Carnival daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Carnival price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Carnival returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Carnival.
| Mean Return | -0.25 | Value At Risk | -3.98 | Potential Upside | 4.53 | Standard Deviation | 2.41 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Carnival historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Carnival Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Carnival is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carnival backward and forwards among themselves. Carnival's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Carnival's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership | 2023-12-31 | 10.4 M | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 10.1 M | Qube Research & Technologies | 2023-12-31 | 9 M | Voloridge Investment Management, Llc | 2023-09-30 | 8.8 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 8.6 M | Squarepoint Ops Llc | 2023-12-31 | 6.6 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 6.4 M | Candlestick Capital Management Lp | 2023-09-30 | 6.3 M | Primecap Management Company | 2023-12-31 | 6.3 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 113.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 64.2 M |
Carnival Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 77M | (63M) | (95M) | (85M) | (76.5M) | (72.7M) | |
| Change In Cash | 9.2B | (716M) | (2.9B) | (3.6B) | (3.2B) | (3.1B) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (9.9B) | (7.7B) | (6.6B) | 997M | 897.3M | 942.2M | |
| Depreciation | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 2.7B | 2.9B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 172M | 449M | 884M | 363M | 417.5M | 438.3M | |
| Dividends Paid | 689M | 12.4B | (87M) | (20M) | (23M) | (21.9M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 3.6B | 3.6B | 4.9B | 3.3B | 3.8B | 2.5B | |
| Net Income | (10.2B) | (9.5B) | (6.1B) | (74M) | (66.6M) | (63.3M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 9.7B | 9.0B | 6.0B | 2.4B | 2.8B | 1.4B | |
| Net Borrowings | 1.4B | 16.3B | 6.2B | 2.5B | 2.9B | 2.5B | |
| Change To Netincome | 113M | 4.7B | 1.9B | 667M | 767.1M | 867.3M | |
| Investments | (81M) | (290M) | 199M | (3.6B) | (3.3B) | (3.1B) |
Carnival Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Carnival or Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Carnival's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Carnival stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.33 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Carnival Volatility Alert
Carnival exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.56 and kurtosis of 0.99. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Carnival's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Carnival's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Carnival Implied Volatility
Carnival's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carnival stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carnival's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carnival stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carnival's options are near their expiration.
Carnival Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Carnival's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Carnival's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Carnival and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Carnival or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Carnival's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carnival by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Carnival to competition |
| Fundamentals | Carnival | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.063 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0294 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.05 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 47.43 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.12 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 7.86 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 60.15 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 96.08 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 5.36 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.82 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.83 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 21.59 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 10.7 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 4.49 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (74 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 4.03 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 5.44 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 31.89 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 4.21 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.65 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 5.27 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 4.28 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.77 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.32 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.41 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 20.99 | |
| Number Of Employees | 106 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.55 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 18.21 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 49.12 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 185 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (6.21 B) | 1.48 B |
Note: Purchase by Randall Weisenburger of 100000 shares of Carnival [view details]
Carnival Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Carnival . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Carnival Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Carnival? Buying financial instruments such as Carnival Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 35.9B | 31.9B | 36.7B | 38.5B | Total Assets | 51.7B | 49.1B | 56.5B | 59.3B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Carnival in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Cigarettes Thematic Idea Now
Cigarettes
Tobacco makers and distributors across globe. The Cigarettes theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Cigarettes Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
| View All Next | Launch |
Check out Carnival Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Carnival Stock please use our How to buy in Carnival Stock guide.Note that the Carnival information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carnival's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Carnival Stock analysis
When running Carnival's price analysis, check to measure Carnival's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carnival is operating at the current time. Most of Carnival's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carnival's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carnival's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carnival to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals |
Is Carnival's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 0.32 | Revenue Per Share 17.868 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.22 | Return On Assets 0.0294 |
The market value of Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.