Big Lots Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| BIG Stock | USD 3.43 0.21 5.77% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Big Lots is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Big Lots buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Big Lots positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Big Lots' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Big Lots' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 4.14 | Target Price 6.47 | Hype Value 3.25 | Market Value 3.43 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Big Lots given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Big Lots. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Big Lots, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Big |
Execute Big Lots Buy or Sell Advice
The Big recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Big Lots. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Big Lots or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Big Lots' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very risky | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Big Lots Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Big Lots generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Big Lots has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.72 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (481.88 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.91 B. | |
| Big Lots has about 44.73 M in cash with (251.96 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.7. | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Big Lots Stylish 2-Piece Ceramic Bowl Set Is Just 3, and Fans are Rushing to Stock Their Carts - Prescott Daily Courier |
Big Lots Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Big Lots' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Big Lots' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Big Lots daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Big Lots price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Big Lots returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Big Lots.
| Mean Return | -0.66 | Value At Risk | -7.14 | Potential Upside | 11.75 | Standard Deviation | 6.85 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Big Lots historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Big Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Big Lots is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Big Lots backward and forwards among themselves. Big Lots' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Big Lots' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Partnership Wealth Management Llc | 2024-03-31 | 479.2 K | Two Sigma Advisers, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 472.9 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 471.4 K | Jane Street Group, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 414.9 K | Federated Hermes Inc | 2023-12-31 | 389 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 361.2 K | Scion Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 225 K | D. E. Shaw & Co Lp | 2023-09-30 | 216.4 K | Bank Of America Corp | 2023-12-31 | 204.7 K | Fmr Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.8 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.3 M |
Big Lots Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 6.7M | 506.8M | (505.8M) | (9.0M) | 1.7M | 1.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 73.8M | 264.1M | 33.0M | (303.7M) | (315.1M) | (299.3M) | |
| Depreciation | 135.7M | 138.8M | 143.7M | 156.4M | 139.2M | 89.4M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 55.5M | (215.0M) | 270.8M | 323.6M | 240.9M | 253.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 265.2M | 135.2M | 160.8M | 159.4M | 63.1M | 118.0M | |
| Net Income | 242.5M | 629.2M | 177.8M | (210.7M) | (481.9M) | (457.8M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 52.7M | 559.6M | 53.7M | 44.7M | 46.4M | 44.1M | |
| Change To Inventory | 48.3M | (19.0M) | (297.5M) | 89.8M | 194.6M | 204.4M | |
| Change To Netincome | (108.2M) | (368.2M) | (126.6M) | (258K) | (232.2K) | (243.8K) | |
| Dividends Paid | 48.4M | 47.0M | 41.7M | 37.0M | 9.8M | 9.3M | |
| Net Borrowings | (150K) | (123.4M) | (1.6M) | (3.4M) | (3.1M) | (3.2M) | |
| Investments | (74.5M) | 453.0M | (159.7M) | (108.9M) | 279.5M | 293.5M |
Big Lots Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Big Lots or Broadline Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Big Lots' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Big stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.97 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Big Lots Volatility Alert
Big Lots is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Big Lots' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Big Lots' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Big Lots Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Big Lots' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Big Lots' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Big Lots and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Big Lots or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Big Lots' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Big Lots by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Big Lots to competition |
| Fundamentals | Big Lots | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.92 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.08 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.10) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.01) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 2.34 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.51 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.78 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 77.96 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 6.84 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 8.21 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.32 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.02 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 4.72 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.91 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (234.94 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (481.88 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 44.73 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.70 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.28 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.31 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.43 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 9.73 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (251.96 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.51 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (16.53) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.88 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 4.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 10 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.35 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 107.43 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 3.33 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 2.75 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 255 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Cynthia Jamison of 8185 shares of Big Lots subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Big Lots Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Big . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 91399.8 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.60) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.26) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.21) |
About Big Lots Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Big Lots? Buying financial instruments such as Big Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.3B | 2.4B | Total Assets | 3.9B | 3.7B | 3.3B | 1.8B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Big Lots in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Medical Equipment Thematic Idea Now
Medical Equipment
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Medical Equipment theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Medical Equipment Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Big Lots Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in Big Stock please use our How to Invest in Big Lots guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
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When running Big Lots' price analysis, check to measure Big Lots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big Lots is operating at the current time. Most of Big Lots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big Lots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big Lots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big Lots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Earnings Share (16.53) | Revenue Per Share 161.965 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.08) |
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Big Lots is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.