American Axle Manufacturing Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AXL Stock  USD 7.38  0.33  4.68%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding American Axle Manufacturing is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides American Axle buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AXL positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of American Axle's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting American Axle's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
7.91
Target Price
8.61
Hype Value
7.33
Market Value
7.38
Naive Value
7.7
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell American Axle Manufacturing given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards American Axle. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for American Axle Manufacturing, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out American Axle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as American and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards American Axle Manufacturing. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in interest.

Execute American Axle Buy or Sell Advice

The American recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on American Axle Manufacturing. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in American Axle Manufacturing or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute American Axle's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell American AxleBuy American Axle
Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Somewhat reliableDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon American Axle Manufacturing has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04), Jensen Alpha of (0.60), Total Risk Alpha of (0.84) and Treynor Ratio of (0.08)
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on American Axle Manufa. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure American Axle is not overpriced, please confirm all American Axle Manufa fundamentals, including its shares owned by insiders, cash and equivalents, target price, as well as the relationship between the price to sales and book value per share . Given that American Axle Manufa has a price to earning of 15.16 X, we suggest you to validate American Axle Manufacturing market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

American Axle Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

American Axle Manufa generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.08 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (33.6 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 665.8 M.
American Axle Manufa has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Why American Axle Manufacturing is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Term

American Axle Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of American Axle's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of American Axle's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of American Axle daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use American Axle Manufacturing price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of American Axle returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for American Axle.
Mean Return
-0.22
Value At Risk
-5.36
Potential Upside
4.53
Standard Deviation
2.72
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of American Axle historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

American Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as American Axle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Axle Manufacturing backward and forwards among themselves. American Axle's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase American Axle's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Lsv Asset Management2023-12-31
2.6 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
2.4 M
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
2.4 M
American Century Companies Inc2023-12-31
2.1 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
1.7 M
Sequoia Financial Advisors Llc2023-12-31
1.6 M
Penn Capital Management Company Llc2023-12-31
1.3 M
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
1.2 M
Mirae Asset Global Investments (korea) Co Ltd2023-12-31
1.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
19.1 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
14.1 M
Note, although American Axle's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

American Axle Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory56.1M53.7M(87.7M)(16.2M)(13.2M)(13.9M)
Change In Cash53.1M25M(26.8M)(18.7M)8.4M8.0M
Free Cash Flow126.3M239M357.2M277.5M201.5M211.6M
Depreciation536.9M521.9M544.3M492.1M487.2M278.0M
Other Non Cash Items682.1M523.8M38M6M(10.9M)(10.4M)
Capital Expenditures433.3M215.7M181.2M171.4M194.6M212.6M
Net Income(484.1M)(561.1M)5.9M64.3M(33.6M)(31.9M)
End Period Cash Flow532M557M530.2M511.5M519.9M265.9M
Change Receivables63.9M28.9M23.1M(38.7M)(44.5M)(46.7M)
Net Borrowings(192.5M)(213.5M)(392.1M)(216.8M)(195.1M)(185.4M)
Change To Netincome591M500.2M16.7M(37.7M)(43.4M)(41.2M)
Investments(9.2M)(218.4M)(1.1M)(243M)(172.3M)(180.9M)

American Axle Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Axle or Automobile Components sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Axle's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.6
β
Beta against NYSE Composite3.02
σ
Overall volatility
2.82
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

American Axle Volatility Alert

American Axle Manufacturing exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.78 and kurtosis of 1.48. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure American Axle's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact American Axle's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

American Axle Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing American Axle's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze American Axle's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between American Axle and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as American Axle or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of American Axle's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Axle by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare American Axle to competition
FundamentalsAmerican AxlePeer Average
Return On Equity-0.0545-0.31
Return On Asset0.0198-0.14
Profit Margin(0.01) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.03 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation3.2 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding117.54 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders3.83 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions96.17 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted6.72 M4.71 M
Price To Earning15.16 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.37 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.14 X11.42 X
Revenue6.08 B9.43 B
Gross Profit665.8 M27.38 B
EBITDA634.4 M3.9 B
Net Income(33.6 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents511.5 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share4.14 X5.01 X
Total Debt2.98 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity6.38 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.69 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share5.17 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations396.1 M971.22 M
Short Ratio4.14 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(0.29) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth(1.17) X4.89 X
Target Price7.63
Number Of Employees19 K18.84 K
Beta2.22-0.15
Market Capitalization828.66 M19.03 B
Total Asset5.36 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(283.2 M)9.33 B
Working Capital805 M1.48 B
Note: Insider Trading [view details]

American Axle Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as American . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About American Axle Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell American Axle Manufacturing? Buying financial instruments such as American Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total3.2B3.0B3.0B1.8B
Total Assets5.6B5.5B5.4B3.9B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having American Axle in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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High Yield ETFs
High Yield ETFs Theme
ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The High Yield ETFs theme has 95 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize High Yield ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether American Axle Manufa is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Axle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Axle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Axle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is American Axle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Axle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Axle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.65)
Earnings Share
(0.29)
Revenue Per Share
52.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.05
Return On Assets
0.0198
The market value of American Axle Manufa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Axle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Axle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Axle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Axle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Axle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Axle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Axle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.