Alaska Air Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ALK Stock | USD 40.98 0.32 0.77% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Alaska Air Group is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alaska Air buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ALK positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alaska Air's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Alaska Air's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 45.77 | Target Price 51.58 | Hype Value 40.93 | Market Value 40.98 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Alaska Air Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Alaska Air. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Alaska Air Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Alaska |
Execute Alaska Air Buy or Sell Advice
The Alaska recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alaska Air Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alaska Air Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alaska Air's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Actively responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Alaska Air Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company has 3.82 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.03, which is OK given its current industry classification. Alaska Air Group has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Alaska Air Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 83.0% of Alaska Air shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Disposition of 2400 shares by Berry Jason M of Alaska Air subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Alaska Air Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Alaska Air's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Alaska Air's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alaska Air daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alaska Air Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alaska Air returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alaska Air.
| Mean Return | 0.17 | Value At Risk | -2.44 | Potential Upside | 3.73 | Standard Deviation | 2.03 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alaska Air historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Alaska Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alaska Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alaska Air Group backward and forwards among themselves. Alaska Air's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alaska Air's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Fmr Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Massachusetts Financial Services Company | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Us Global Investors Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.4 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.3 M | Diamond Hill Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.2 M | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2023-09-30 | 1.2 M | Brandywine Global Investment Mgmt Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1.1 M | American Century Companies Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1 M | Par Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 16.5 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 14 M |
Alaska Air Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 118M | 1.2B | (892M) | (125M) | (57M) | (54.2M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.0B | (440M) | 738M | (253M) | (444M) | (421.8M) | |
| Depreciation | 423M | 420M | 394M | 415M | 451M | 473.6M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 510M | 220M | 434M | 474M | 507M | 532.4M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 696M | 206M | 292M | 1.7B | 1.5B | 1.6B | |
| Net Income | 769M | (1.3B) | 478M | 58M | 235M | 173.4M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 232M | 1.4B | 494M | 369M | 281M | 224.3M | |
| Investments | (136M) | (644M) | (1.0B) | (1.2B) | (1.1B) | (1.1B) | |
| Change Receivables | 43M | (160M) | (66M) | (45M) | (40.5M) | (42.5M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (608M) | 2.0B | (971M) | (385M) | (442.8M) | (420.6M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 256M | (258M) | 434M | 43M | 38.7M | 36.8M |
Alaska Air Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alaska Air or Passenger Airlines sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alaska Air's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alaska stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Alaska Air Volatility Alert
Alaska Air Group has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.19 and kurtosis of -0.06. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alaska Air's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alaska Air's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Alaska Air Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Alaska Air's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alaska Air's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alaska Air and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alaska Air or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alaska Air's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alaska Air by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Alaska Air to competition |
| Fundamentals | Alaska Air | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0593 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0355 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.03 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 7.19 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 125.8 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.43 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 83.25 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 6.02 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 112.95 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.26 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.50 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 10.43 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 2.36 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.35 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 235 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 338 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 24.83 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 3.82 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.03 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.81 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 32.62 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.05 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.67 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.83 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.30 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 54.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 23.18 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.63 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 5.2 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 15.83 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 4.54 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (1.47 B) | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 2400 shares by Berry Jason M of Alaska Air subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Alaska Air Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alaska . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Alaska Air Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Alaska Air Group? Buying financial instruments such as Alaska Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 4.1B | 3.9B | 3.8B | 4.0B | Total Assets | 14.0B | 14.3B | 15.8B | 16.6B |
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In addition to having Alaska Air in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Alaska Air Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for Alaska Stock analysis
When running Alaska Air's price analysis, check to measure Alaska Air's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alaska Air is operating at the current time. Most of Alaska Air's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alaska Air's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alaska Air's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alaska Air to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alaska Air's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.484 | Earnings Share 1.83 | Revenue Per Share 81.853 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 | Return On Assets 0.0355 |
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.