American Eagle Outfitters Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AEO Stock | USD 22.38 0.04 0.18% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding American Eagle Outfitters is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides American Eagle buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AEO positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of American Eagle's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting American Eagle's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 19.88 | Target Price 17.14 | Hype Value 22.35 | Market Value 22.38 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell American Eagle Outfitters given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards American Eagle. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for American Eagle Outfitters, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
American |
Execute American Eagle Buy or Sell Advice
The American recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on American Eagle Outfitters. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in American Eagle Outfitters or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute American Eagle's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Small | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
American Eagle Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| American Eagle is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: American Eagle coming to Boulevard shopping center |
American Eagle Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of American Eagle's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of American Eagle's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of American Eagle daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use American Eagle Outfitters price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of American Eagle returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for American Eagle.
| Mean Return | 0.15 | Value At Risk | -3.1 | Potential Upside | 3.82 | Standard Deviation | 1.96 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of American Eagle historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
American Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as American Eagle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Eagle Outfitters backward and forwards among themselves. American Eagle's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase American Eagle's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 3.9 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 3.6 M | American Century Companies Inc | 2023-12-31 | 3.1 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 2.9 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.9 M | Millennium Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 2.8 M | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2.7 M | Man Group Plc | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Fisher Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 2.1 M | Fmr Inc | 2023-12-31 | 29.4 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 29.2 M |
American Eagle Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (21.6M) | 42.2M | (147.1M) | (38.4M) | (46.3M) | (44.0M) | |
| Change In Cash | 28.6M | 488.5M | (415.7M) | (264.6M) | 183.9M | 193.1M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 205.1M | 74.5M | 69.8M | 145.9M | 406.3M | 426.6M | |
| Depreciation | 181.4M | 165.6M | 171.2M | 212.5M | 236.0M | 247.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 66.3M | 249.2M | 11.9M | 81.0M | 115.6M | 121.4M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 210.4M | 128.0M | 233.8M | 260.4M | 174.4M | 143.2M | |
| Net Income | 191.3M | (209.3M) | 419.6M | 125.1M | 170.0M | 156.7M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 361.9M | 850.5M | 434.8M | 170.2M | 354.1M | 309.4M | |
| Dividends Paid | 92.8M | 22.9M | 113.9M | 64.8M | (83.8M) | (79.6M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 95.8M | 249.3M | 41.6M | 155.4M | 178.7M | 162.9M | |
| Investments | 37.1M | (73.9M) | (594.6M) | (261.4M) | (287.4M) | (273.1M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (3.4M) | (6.8M) | 406.1M | (136.4M) | (156.9M) | (149.0M) |
American Eagle Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Eagle or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Eagle's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.99 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
American Eagle Volatility Alert
American Eagle Outfitters has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.19 and kurtosis of -0.29. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure American Eagle's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact American Eagle's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.American Eagle Implied Volatility
American Eagle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Eagle Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Eagle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Eagle stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Eagle's options are near their expiration.
American Eagle Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing American Eagle's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze American Eagle's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between American Eagle and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as American Eagle or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of American Eagle's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare American Eagle to competition |
| Fundamentals | American Eagle | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.1 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0679 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.09 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.14 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 197.16 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 6.07 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 93.93 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 22.99 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 25.74 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.62 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.86 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 5.26 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.75 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 603.99 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 170.04 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 170.21 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.44 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.19 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.25 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.86 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 8.82 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 580.71 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.03 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.86 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 38.27 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 24.2 | |
| Number Of Employees | 10.3 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.58 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.4 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 3.89 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 2.21 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 542.18 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Noel Spiegel of 2363 shares of American Eagle subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
American Eagle Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as American . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 97316.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0548 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.04 |
About American Eagle Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell American Eagle Outfitters? Buying financial instruments such as American Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 1.8B | 1.4B | 1.2B | 1.2B | Total Assets | 3.8B | 3.4B | 3.9B | 4.1B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having American Eagle in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Cigarettes Thematic Idea Now
Cigarettes
Tobacco makers and distributors across globe. The Cigarettes theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Cigarettes Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out American Eagle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the American Eagle Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Eagle's price analysis, check to measure American Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of American Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Eagle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Eagle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Dividend Share 0.425 | Earnings Share 0.86 | Revenue Per Share 26.894 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.122 |
The market value of American Eagle Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.