Alcoa Buy or Sell Recommendation

    Macroaxis provides Alcoa Inc buy hold or sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Alcoa positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alcoa Inc available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. The advice is provided from Alcoa buy-and-hold prospective. Check also Alcoa Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with current analyst consensus

    Investment Horizon


    Risk Tolerance

    Execute Advice
    Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, and your above average risk tolerance our recommendation regarding Alcoa Inc is 'Cautious Hold'.
    For the selected time horizon Alcoa Inc has a mean deviation of 2.18, semi deviation of 2.58, standard deviation of 3.31, variance of 10.94, downside variance of 9.04 and semi variance of 6.67
    Macroaxis buy, hold, or sell suggestion module can be used to complement Alcoa buy, hold, or sell recommendation provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the organization potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Alcoa is not overpriced, please confirm all Alcoa Inc fundamentals including its Profit Margin, Shares Owned by Insiders, Price to Book, as well as the relationship between Current Valuation and Number of Shares Shorted . Given that Alcoa Inc has Number of Shares Shorted of 5.01 M, we suggest you validate Alcoa Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to make sure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

    Returns Distribution Density

    Mean Return0.27Value At Risk-5.2949
    Potential Upside5.0789Standard Deviation3.3076
     Return Density 
    Benchmark  Embed    Distribution 

    Institutional Investors

    Security TypeSharesValue
    Simplex Trading LlcPut Options894164 K
    Simplex Trading LlcCall Options66470 K

    Alcoa Greeks

    Alpha over NYSE
    = 0.12 
    βBeta against NYSE= 2.18 
    Overall volatility
    = 3.39 
     IrInformation ratio = 0.06 

    Alcoa Volatility Alert

    Alcoa Inc shows above average downside volatility of 3.01 for selected time horizon. We advise investors to further inspect Alcoa Inc to make sure all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with estimation about Alcoa future alpha.
     Better Than Average     
     Worse Than Average Compare Alcoa to competition
    FundamentalsAlcoaPeer Average
    Return On Equity16.20 % (15.17) %
    Return On Asset(0.05) % (15.64) %
    Profit Margin(0.08) % (5.50) %
    Operating Margin4.31 % (10.91) %
    Current Valuation20.47 B152.14 B
    Shares Outstanding184.2 M1.43 B
    Shares Owned by Insiders0.13 % 6.91 %
    Shares Owned by Institutions62.50 % 18.37 %
    Number of Shares Shorted5.01 M3.24 M
    Price to Earning(16.64) times40.69 times
    Price to Book1.18 times14.44 times
    Price to Sales0.72 times17.81 times
    Revenue11.2 B9.85 B
    Gross Profit2.16 B21.75 B
    EBITDA1.09 B1.41 B
    Net Income(863 M)517.71 M
    Cash and Equivalents557 M3.89 B
    Cash per Share1.32 times5.17 times
    Total Debt225 M7.36 B
    Debt to Equity0.16 times0.72 times
    Current Ratio1.64 times3.30 times
    Book Value Per Share30.91 times13.64 times
    Cash Flow from Operations875 M1.25 B
    Short Ratio0.95 times2.09 times
    Earnings Per Share(2.19) times2.30 times
    Price to Earnings To Growth(0.23) times1.22 times
    Number of Employees16 K10.67 K
    Market Capitalization6.71 B29.78 B
    Total Asset16.41 B126.86 B
    Retained Earnings8.83 B38.24 B
    Working Capital162 M3.58 B
    Current Asset2.57 B36.8 B
    Cautious Hold


    Hype Condition

    Current Valuation

    Odds of Distress

    Economic Sensitivity

    Analyst Consensus

    Piotroski F Score

    Financial Leverage

       Acquisition by Timothy Flynn of 2078 shares of Alcoa subject to Rule 16b3 [view details]
    Risk Adjusted Performance0.0499
    Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.1282
    Mean Deviation2.18
    Semi Deviation2.58
    Downside Deviation3.01
    Coefficient Of Variation1236.05
    Standard Deviation3.31
    Information Ratio0.0593
    Jensen Alpha0.1234
    Total Risk Alpha(0.14)
    Sortino Ratio0.0652
    Treynor Ratio0.1182
    Maximum Drawdown9.66
    Value At Risk(5.29)
    Potential Upside5.08
    Downside Variance9.04
    Semi Variance6.67
    Expected Short fall(2.64)

    Current Valuation

    Alcoa Current Valuation Analysis
    Alcoa Inc is rated third in current valuation category among related companies. After adjusting for long-term liabilities, total market size of Non-ferrous Metals Production And Products industry is presently estimated at about 78.94 Billion. Alcoa totals roughly 20.47 Billion in current valuation claiming about 26% of all equities under Non-ferrous Metals Production And Products industry.