Vintage Wine Estates Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.37
| VWE Stock | USD 0.31 0.01 3.66% |
Closest to current price Vintage long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Vintage |
Vintage Wine Target Price Odds to finish below 0.37
The tendency of Vintage Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 0.37 after 90 days |
| 0.31 | 90 days | 0.37 | about 58.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vintage Wine to stay under $ 0.37 after 90 days from now is about 58.84 (This Vintage Wine Estates probability density function shows the probability of Vintage Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vintage Wine Estates price to stay between its current price of $ 0.31 and $ 0.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.34 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.12 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vintage Wine will likely underperform. Additionally Vintage Wine Estates has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Vintage Wine Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vintage Wine
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vintage Wine Estates. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vintage Wine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vintage Wine Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vintage Wine is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vintage Wine's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vintage Wine Estates, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vintage Wine within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 4.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Vintage Wine Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vintage Wine for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vintage Wine Estates can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vintage Wine Estates generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 283.23 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (190.23 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 85.18 M. | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has about 50.45 M in cash with (8.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.82, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Vintage Wine Estates Third Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.44 loss per share |
Vintage Wine Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vintage Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vintage Wine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vintage Wine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.2 M |
Vintage Wine Technical Analysis
Vintage Wine's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vintage Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vintage Wine Estates. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vintage Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vintage Wine Predictive Forecast Models
Vintage Wine's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vintage Wine's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vintage Wine's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vintage Wine Estates
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vintage Wine for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vintage Wine Estates help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vintage Wine Estates generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 283.23 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (190.23 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 85.18 M. | |
| Vintage Wine Estates has about 50.45 M in cash with (8.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.82, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Vintage Wine Estates Third Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.44 loss per share |
Check out Vintage Wine Backtesting, Vintage Wine Valuation, Vintage Wine Correlation, Vintage Wine Hype Analysis, Vintage Wine Volatility, Vintage Wine History as well as Vintage Wine Performance. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
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When running Vintage Wine's price analysis, check to measure Vintage Wine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vintage Wine is operating at the current time. Most of Vintage Wine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vintage Wine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vintage Wine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vintage Wine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vintage Wine's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vintage Wine. If investors know Vintage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vintage Wine listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share 3.914 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) | Return On Assets (0.08) |
The market value of Vintage Wine Estates is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vintage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vintage Wine's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vintage Wine's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vintage Wine's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vintage Wine's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vintage Wine's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vintage Wine is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vintage Wine's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.