United Fire Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.03
| UFCS Stock | USD 22.93 0.49 2.18% |
Closest to current price United long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
United |
United Fire Target Price Odds to finish over 22.03
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 22.03 in 90 days |
| 22.93 | 90 days | 22.03 | about 63.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Fire to stay above $ 22.03 in 90 days from now is about 63.21 (This United Fire Group probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Fire Group price to stay between $ 22.03 and its current price of $22.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.1 . This usually implies United Fire Group market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, United Fire is expected to follow. Additionally United Fire Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. United Fire Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United Fire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Fire Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Fire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Fire Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Fire is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Fire's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Fire Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Fire within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0032 |
United Fire Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Fire for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Fire Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company currently holds 50 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. United Fire Group has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist United Fire until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, United Fire's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like United Fire Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for United to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about United Fire's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.1 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 15.27 M. | |
| United Fire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 64.0% of United Fire outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 22nd of March 2024 United Fire paid $ 0.16 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Disposition of tradable shares by Lindsay Lovvorn of United Fire at 22.44 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
United Fire Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Fire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Fire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.1 M |
United Fire Technical Analysis
United Fire's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Fire Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Fire Predictive Forecast Models
United Fire's time-series forecasting models is one of many United Fire's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Fire's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Fire Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Fire for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Fire Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company currently holds 50 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. United Fire Group has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist United Fire until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, United Fire's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like United Fire Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for United to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about United Fire's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.1 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 15.27 M. | |
| United Fire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 64.0% of United Fire outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 22nd of March 2024 United Fire paid $ 0.16 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Disposition of tradable shares by Lindsay Lovvorn of United Fire at 22.44 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out United Fire Backtesting, United Fire Valuation, United Fire Correlation, United Fire Hype Analysis, United Fire Volatility, United Fire History as well as United Fire Performance. Note that the United Fire Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other United Fire's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for United Stock analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Fire's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Fire. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Fire listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share (1.18) | Revenue Per Share 43.386 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 |
The market value of United Fire Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Fire's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Fire's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Fire's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Fire's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Fire's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Fire is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Fire's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.