Strategic Allocation Moderate Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 6.39

TWSMX Fund  USD 6.69  0.02  0.30%   
Strategic Allocation's future price is the expected price of Strategic Allocation instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Strategic Allocation Moderate performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Strategic Allocation Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Strategic Allocation Correlation, Strategic Allocation Hype Analysis, Strategic Allocation Volatility, Strategic Allocation History as well as Strategic Allocation Performance.
  
Please specify Strategic Allocation's target price for which you would like Strategic Allocation odds to be computed.

Strategic Allocation Target Price Odds to finish below 6.39

The tendency of Strategic Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 6.39  or more in 90 days
 6.69 90 days 6.39 
about 5.17
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Strategic Allocation to drop to $ 6.39  or more in 90 days from now is about 5.17 (This Strategic Allocation Moderate probability density function shows the probability of Strategic Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Strategic Allocation price to stay between $ 6.39  and its current price of $6.69 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.24 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Strategic Allocation Moderate has a beta of -0.0449. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Strategic Allocation are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Strategic Allocation Moderate is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Strategic Allocation Moderate has an alpha of 0.0512, implying that it can generate a 0.0512 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Strategic Allocation Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Strategic Allocation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Strategic Allocation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Strategic Allocation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.176.697.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.006.527.04
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
6.186.707.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.356.717.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Strategic Allocation. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Strategic Allocation's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Strategic Allocation's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Strategic Allocation.

Strategic Allocation Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Strategic Allocation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Strategic Allocation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Strategic Allocation Moderate, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Strategic Allocation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.04
σ
Overall volatility
0.13
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

Strategic Allocation Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Strategic Allocation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Strategic Allocation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 8.28% of its assets in cash

Strategic Allocation Technical Analysis

Strategic Allocation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Strategic Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Strategic Allocation Moderate. In general, you should focus on analyzing Strategic Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Strategic Allocation Predictive Forecast Models

Strategic Allocation's time-series forecasting models is one of many Strategic Allocation's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Strategic Allocation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Strategic Allocation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Strategic Allocation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Strategic Allocation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 8.28% of its assets in cash

Other Information on Investing in Strategic Mutual Fund

Strategic Allocation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Strategic Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Strategic with respect to the benefits of owning Strategic Allocation security.
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