The Travelers Companies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 205.4
| TRV Stock | USD 208.41 1.23 0.59% |
Closest to current price Travelers long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Travelers |
Travelers Companies Target Price Odds to finish below 205.4
The tendency of Travelers Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 205.40 or more in 90 days |
| 208.41 | 90 days | 205.40 | about 1.37 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Travelers Companies to drop to $ 205.40 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.37 (This The Travelers Companies probability density function shows the probability of Travelers Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of The Travelers Companies price to stay between $ 205.40 and its current price of $208.41 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Travelers Companies has a beta of 0.57. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Travelers Companies average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding The Travelers Companies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The Travelers Companies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Travelers Companies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Travelers Companies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The Travelers Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Travelers Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Travelers Companies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Travelers Companies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Travelers Companies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Travelers Companies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Travelers Companies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Travelers Companies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Travelers Companies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for The Travelers Companies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Travelers Companies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The Travelers Companies has 8.27 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.37, which is OK given its current industry classification. The Travelers Companies has a current ratio of 0.33, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Travelers to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Travelers Companies has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 85.0% of Travelers Companies shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: National Geographic Expeditions Launches Three Stunning New Itineraries for 2025 |
Travelers Companies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Travelers Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Travelers Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Travelers Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 232.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 83.6 B |
Travelers Companies Technical Analysis
Travelers Companies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Travelers Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Travelers Companies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Travelers Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Travelers Companies Predictive Forecast Models
Travelers Companies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Travelers Companies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Travelers Companies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about The Travelers Companies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Travelers Companies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for The Travelers Companies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Travelers Companies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The Travelers Companies has 8.27 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.37, which is OK given its current industry classification. The Travelers Companies has a current ratio of 0.33, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Travelers to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Travelers Companies has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 85.0% of Travelers Companies shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: National Geographic Expeditions Launches Three Stunning New Itineraries for 2025 |
Additional Tools for Travelers Stock Analysis
When running Travelers Companies' price analysis, check to measure Travelers Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Travelers Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Travelers Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Travelers Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Travelers Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Travelers Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.