Trimegah Securities (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 262.0
| TRIM Stock | IDR 260.00 12.00 4.84% |
Trimegah |
Trimegah Securities Target Price Odds to finish below 262.0
The tendency of Trimegah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 262.00 after 90 days |
| 260.00 | 90 days | 262.00 | about 23.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trimegah Securities to stay under 262.00 after 90 days from now is about 23.79 (This Trimegah Securities Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Trimegah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trimegah Securities Tbk price to stay between its current price of 260.00 and 262.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Trimegah Securities has a beta of 0.17. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Trimegah Securities average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Trimegah Securities Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Trimegah Securities Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Trimegah Securities Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trimegah Securities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trimegah Securities Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trimegah Securities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trimegah Securities Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trimegah Securities is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trimegah Securities' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trimegah Securities Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trimegah Securities within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Trimegah Securities Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trimegah Securities for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trimegah Securities Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trimegah Securities generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 50.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Trimegah Securities Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trimegah Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trimegah Securities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trimegah Securities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 315.1 B |
Trimegah Securities Technical Analysis
Trimegah Securities' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trimegah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trimegah Securities Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trimegah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trimegah Securities Predictive Forecast Models
Trimegah Securities' time-series forecasting models is one of many Trimegah Securities' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trimegah Securities' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trimegah Securities Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trimegah Securities for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trimegah Securities Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trimegah Securities generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 50.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Trimegah Securities Backtesting, Trimegah Securities Valuation, Trimegah Securities Correlation, Trimegah Securities Hype Analysis, Trimegah Securities Volatility, Trimegah Securities History as well as Trimegah Securities Performance. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Complementary Tools for Trimegah Stock analysis
When running Trimegah Securities' price analysis, check to measure Trimegah Securities' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trimegah Securities is operating at the current time. Most of Trimegah Securities' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trimegah Securities' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trimegah Securities' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trimegah Securities to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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