Treehouse Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 36.69
| THS Stock | USD 37.26 0.37 0.98% |
Closest to current price Treehouse long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Treehouse |
Treehouse Foods Target Price Odds to finish over 36.69
The tendency of Treehouse Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 36.69 in 90 days |
| 37.26 | 90 days | 36.69 | about 70.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Treehouse Foods to stay above $ 36.69 in 90 days from now is about 70.94 (This Treehouse Foods probability density function shows the probability of Treehouse Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Treehouse Foods price to stay between $ 36.69 and its current price of $37.26 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.92 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Treehouse Foods has a beta of -0.41. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Treehouse Foods are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Treehouse Foods is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Treehouse Foods has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Treehouse Foods Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Treehouse Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Treehouse Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Treehouse Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Treehouse Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Treehouse Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Treehouse Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Treehouse Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Treehouse Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Treehouse Foods Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Treehouse Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Treehouse Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Treehouse Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Treehouse Foods has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Lancaster Colony Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates |
Treehouse Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Treehouse Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Treehouse Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Treehouse Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 320.3 M |
Treehouse Foods Technical Analysis
Treehouse Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Treehouse Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Treehouse Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Treehouse Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Treehouse Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Treehouse Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Treehouse Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Treehouse Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Treehouse Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Treehouse Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Treehouse Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Treehouse Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Treehouse Foods has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Lancaster Colony Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates |
Check out Treehouse Foods Backtesting, Treehouse Foods Valuation, Treehouse Foods Correlation, Treehouse Foods Hype Analysis, Treehouse Foods Volatility, Treehouse Foods History as well as Treehouse Foods Performance. For more information on how to buy Treehouse Stock please use our How to Invest in Treehouse Foods guide.Note that the Treehouse Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Treehouse Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for Treehouse Stock analysis
When running Treehouse Foods' price analysis, check to measure Treehouse Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Treehouse Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Treehouse Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Treehouse Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Treehouse Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Treehouse Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Treehouse Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Treehouse Foods. If investors know Treehouse will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Treehouse Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Earnings Share 1.05 | Revenue Per Share 61.498 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets 0.03 |
The market value of Treehouse Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Treehouse that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Treehouse Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Treehouse Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Treehouse Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Treehouse Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Treehouse Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Treehouse Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Treehouse Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.