Franklin Mutual Shares Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 25.46
| TESRX Fund | USD 25.42 0.09 0.36% |
Franklin |
Franklin Mutual Target Price Odds to finish below 25.46
The tendency of Franklin Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 25.46 after 90 days |
| 25.42 | 90 days | 25.46 | about 83.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Franklin Mutual to stay under $ 25.46 after 90 days from now is about 83.15 (This Franklin Mutual Shares probability density function shows the probability of Franklin Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Franklin Mutual Shares price to stay between its current price of $ 25.42 and $ 25.46 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.47 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Franklin Mutual has a beta of 0.0942. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Franklin Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Franklin Mutual Shares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Franklin Mutual Shares has an alpha of 0.0475, implying that it can generate a 0.0475 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Franklin Mutual Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Franklin Mutual
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin Mutual Shares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin Mutual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Franklin Mutual Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Franklin Mutual is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Franklin Mutual's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Franklin Mutual Shares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Franklin Mutual within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Franklin Mutual Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Franklin Mutual for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Franklin Mutual Shares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.Franklin Mutual Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Franklin Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Franklin Mutual's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Franklin Mutual's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Franklin Mutual Technical Analysis
Franklin Mutual's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Franklin Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Franklin Mutual Shares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Franklin Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Franklin Mutual Predictive Forecast Models
Franklin Mutual's time-series forecasting models is one of many Franklin Mutual's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Franklin Mutual's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Franklin Mutual Shares
Checking the ongoing alerts about Franklin Mutual for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Franklin Mutual Shares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Check out Franklin Mutual Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Franklin Mutual Correlation, Franklin Mutual Hype Analysis, Franklin Mutual Volatility, Franklin Mutual History as well as Franklin Mutual Performance. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.