Summarecon Agung (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 575.0
| SMRA Stock | IDR 515.00 5.00 0.96% |
Summarecon |
Summarecon Agung Target Price Odds to finish over 575.0
The tendency of Summarecon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 575.00 or more in 90 days |
| 515.00 | 90 days | 575.00 | roughly 2.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Summarecon Agung to move over 575.00 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.3 (This Summarecon Agung Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Summarecon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Summarecon Agung Tbk price to stay between its current price of 515.00 and 575.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.06 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Summarecon Agung has a beta of 0.52. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Summarecon Agung average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Summarecon Agung Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Summarecon Agung Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Summarecon Agung Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Summarecon Agung
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Summarecon Agung Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Summarecon Agung's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Summarecon Agung Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Summarecon Agung is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Summarecon Agung's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Summarecon Agung Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Summarecon Agung within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 22.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Summarecon Agung Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Summarecon Agung for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Summarecon Agung Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Summarecon Agung Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Summarecon Agung Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Summarecon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Summarecon Agung's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Summarecon Agung's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 T |
Summarecon Agung Technical Analysis
Summarecon Agung's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Summarecon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Summarecon Agung Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Summarecon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Summarecon Agung Predictive Forecast Models
Summarecon Agung's time-series forecasting models is one of many Summarecon Agung's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Summarecon Agung's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Summarecon Agung Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Summarecon Agung for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Summarecon Agung Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Summarecon Agung Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Summarecon Stock
Summarecon Agung financial ratios help investors to determine whether Summarecon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Summarecon with respect to the benefits of owning Summarecon Agung security.