Simmons First National Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.76
| SFNC Stock | USD 17.38 0.12 0.70% |
Closest to current price Simmons long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Simmons |
Simmons First Target Price Odds to finish over 26.76
The tendency of Simmons Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 26.76 or more in 90 days |
| 17.38 | 90 days | 26.76 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Simmons First to move over $ 26.76 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Simmons First National probability density function shows the probability of Simmons Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Simmons First National price to stay between its current price of $ 17.38 and $ 26.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.79 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Simmons First will likely underperform. Additionally Simmons First National has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Simmons First Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Simmons First
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simmons First National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Simmons First's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Simmons First Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Simmons First is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Simmons First's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Simmons First National, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Simmons First within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Simmons First Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Simmons First for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Simmons First National can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Simmons First generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Simmons First has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Simmons First National Attractively Valued But Earnings Likely To Decline - Seeking Alpha |
Simmons First Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Simmons Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Simmons First's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Simmons First's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 126.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -345.3 M |
Simmons First Technical Analysis
Simmons First's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Simmons Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Simmons First National. In general, you should focus on analyzing Simmons Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Simmons First Predictive Forecast Models
Simmons First's time-series forecasting models is one of many Simmons First's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Simmons First's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Simmons First National
Checking the ongoing alerts about Simmons First for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Simmons First National help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Simmons First generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Simmons First has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Simmons First National Attractively Valued But Earnings Likely To Decline - Seeking Alpha |
Check out Simmons First Backtesting, Simmons First Valuation, Simmons First Correlation, Simmons First Hype Analysis, Simmons First Volatility, Simmons First History as well as Simmons First Performance. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for Simmons Stock analysis
When running Simmons First's price analysis, check to measure Simmons First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Simmons First is operating at the current time. Most of Simmons First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Simmons First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Simmons First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Simmons First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Simmons First's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simmons First. If investors know Simmons will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simmons First listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 0.81 | Earnings Share 1.33 | Revenue Per Share 5.951 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Simmons First National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simmons that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simmons First's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simmons First's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simmons First's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simmons First's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simmons First's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Simmons First is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simmons First's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.