Safety Insurance Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 77.87
| SAFT Stock | USD 78.54 0.40 0.51% |
Safety |
Safety Insurance Target Price Odds to finish over 77.87
The tendency of Safety Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 77.87 in 90 days |
| 78.54 | 90 days | 77.87 | more than 93.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Safety Insurance to stay above $ 77.87 in 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This Safety Insurance Group probability density function shows the probability of Safety Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Safety Insurance price to stay between $ 77.87 and its current price of $78.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Safety Insurance Group has a beta of -0.0974. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Safety Insurance are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Safety Insurance Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Safety Insurance Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Safety Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Safety Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Safety Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Safety Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Safety Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Safety Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Safety Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Safety Insurance Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Safety Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Safety Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Safety Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Safety Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Safety Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 49.76 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.07, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Safety Insurance has a current ratio of 0.36, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Safety Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Safety Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Safety Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Safety to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Safety Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 85.0% of Safety Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors |
Safety Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Safety Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Safety Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Safety Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 517.6 M |
Safety Insurance Technical Analysis
Safety Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Safety Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Safety Insurance Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Safety Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Safety Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Safety Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Safety Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Safety Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Safety Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Safety Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Safety Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Safety Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 49.76 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.07, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Safety Insurance has a current ratio of 0.36, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Safety Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Safety Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Safety Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Safety to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Safety Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 85.0% of Safety Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors |
Check out Safety Insurance Backtesting, Safety Insurance Valuation, Safety Insurance Correlation, Safety Insurance Hype Analysis, Safety Insurance Volatility, Safety Insurance History as well as Safety Insurance Performance. Note that the Safety Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Safety Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for Safety Stock analysis
When running Safety Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Safety Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Safety Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Safety Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Safety Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Safety Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Safety Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Safety Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Safety Insurance. If investors know Safety will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Safety Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Safety Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Safety that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Safety Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Safety Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Safety Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Safety Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Safety Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Safety Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Safety Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.