Puma Biotechnology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.14
| PBYI Stock | USD 3.81 0.07 1.80% |
Closest to current price Puma long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Puma |
Puma Biotechnology Target Price Odds to finish below 5.14
The tendency of Puma Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 5.14 after 90 days |
| 3.81 | 90 days | 5.14 | about 51.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Puma Biotechnology to stay under $ 5.14 after 90 days from now is about 51.22 (This Puma Biotechnology probability density function shows the probability of Puma Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Puma Biotechnology price to stay between its current price of $ 3.81 and $ 5.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.02 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Puma Biotechnology has a beta of -0.23 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Puma Biotechnology are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Puma Biotechnology is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Puma Biotechnology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Puma Biotechnology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Puma Biotechnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Puma Biotechnology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Puma Biotechnology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Puma Biotechnology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Puma Biotechnology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Puma Biotechnology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Puma Biotechnology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Puma Biotechnology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.69 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Puma Biotechnology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Puma Biotechnology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Puma Biotechnology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Puma Biotechnology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Puma Biotechnology has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Puma Biotechnology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Puma Biotechnology to join Russell 3000 Index |
Puma Biotechnology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Puma Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Puma Biotechnology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Puma Biotechnology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 95.9 M |
Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis
Puma Biotechnology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Puma Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Puma Biotechnology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Puma Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Puma Biotechnology Predictive Forecast Models
Puma Biotechnology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Puma Biotechnology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Puma Biotechnology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Puma Biotechnology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Puma Biotechnology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Puma Biotechnology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Puma Biotechnology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Puma Biotechnology has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Puma Biotechnology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Puma Biotechnology to join Russell 3000 Index |
Check out Puma Biotechnology Backtesting, Puma Biotechnology Valuation, Puma Biotechnology Correlation, Puma Biotechnology Hype Analysis, Puma Biotechnology Volatility, Puma Biotechnology History as well as Puma Biotechnology Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Puma Stock please use our How to Invest in Puma Biotechnology guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Complementary Tools for Puma Stock analysis
When running Puma Biotechnology's price analysis, check to measure Puma Biotechnology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Puma Biotechnology is operating at the current time. Most of Puma Biotechnology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Puma Biotechnology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Puma Biotechnology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Puma Biotechnology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Puma Biotechnology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Puma Biotechnology. If investors know Puma will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Puma Biotechnology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 0.32 | Revenue Per Share 4.769 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets 0.081 |
The market value of Puma Biotechnology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Puma that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Puma Biotechnology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Puma Biotechnology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Puma Biotechnology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Puma Biotechnology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Puma Biotechnology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Puma Biotechnology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Puma Biotechnology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.