Novocure Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.09
| NVCR Stock | USD 12.74 0.50 4.08% |
Closest to current price Novocure long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Novocure |
Novocure Target Price Odds to finish below 12.09
The tendency of Novocure Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.09 or more in 90 days |
| 12.74 | 90 days | 12.09 | nearly 4.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novocure to drop to $ 12.09 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.77 (This Novocure probability density function shows the probability of Novocure Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novocure price to stay between $ 12.09 and its current price of $12.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Novocure has a beta of -0.13. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Novocure are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Novocure is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Novocure has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Novocure Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novocure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novocure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novocure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novocure Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novocure is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novocure's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novocure, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novocure within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Novocure Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novocure for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novocure can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novocure generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novocure has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 509.34 M. Net Loss for the year was (207.04 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 423.58 M. | |
| Novocure currently holds about 948.52 M in cash with (73.34 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.06. | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 7693 shares by Moshe Giladi of Novocure at 83.77 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Novocure Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novocure Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novocure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novocure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 910.6 M |
Novocure Technical Analysis
Novocure's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novocure Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novocure. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novocure Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novocure Predictive Forecast Models
Novocure's time-series forecasting models is one of many Novocure's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novocure's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novocure
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novocure for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novocure help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novocure generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novocure has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 509.34 M. Net Loss for the year was (207.04 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 423.58 M. | |
| Novocure currently holds about 948.52 M in cash with (73.34 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.06. | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 7693 shares by Moshe Giladi of Novocure at 83.77 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Novocure Backtesting, Novocure Valuation, Novocure Correlation, Novocure Hype Analysis, Novocure Volatility, Novocure History as well as Novocure Performance. To learn how to invest in Novocure Stock, please use our How to Invest in Novocure guide.Note that the Novocure information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novocure's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Novocure Stock analysis
When running Novocure's price analysis, check to measure Novocure's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novocure is operating at the current time. Most of Novocure's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novocure's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novocure's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novocure to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novocure's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novocure. If investors know Novocure will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novocure listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Earnings Share (1.95) | Revenue Per Share 4.787 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 | Return On Assets (0.12) |
The market value of Novocure is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novocure that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novocure's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novocure's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novocure's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novocure's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novocure's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novocure is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novocure's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.