Merck (Argentina) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26871.5
| MRK Stock | ARS 28,471 120.00 0.42% |
Merck |
Merck Target Price Odds to finish over 26871.5
The tendency of Merck Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 26,872 in 90 days |
| 28,471 | 90 days | 26,872 | about 72.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck to stay above 26,872 in 90 days from now is about 72.85 (This Merck Company probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merck Company price to stay between 26,872 and its current price of 28471.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.3 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Merck Company has a beta of -0.64. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Merck are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Merck Company is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Merck Company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Merck Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merck
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Merck Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merck is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merck's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merck Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merck within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2,075 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Merck Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merck for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merck Company can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merck Company generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Merck Company has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Merck Technical Analysis
Merck's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merck Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merck Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merck Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merck Predictive Forecast Models
Merck's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merck's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merck's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merck Company
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merck for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merck Company help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merck Company generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Merck Company has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Check out Merck Backtesting, Merck Valuation, Merck Correlation, Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Volatility, Merck History as well as Merck Performance. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis
When running Merck's price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges |